confidentially speaking
The Africa Confidential Blog
CONGO-KINSHASA: President Kabila snubs US envoy Nikki Haley and UN chief over elections as churches plan protests for next month
Patrick Smith
We start in Kinshasa with the cancellation two high-level
meetings and what this tells us about President Joseph Kabila's
political plans. Then to Asmara for a breakthrough meeting between Eritrean President Issayas Aferwerki and Ethiopia's
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. There was a smaller
breakthrough in Nigeria where 38 political parties
have formed an opposition coalition to fight next year's elections. If
it holds together, it could change everyone's calculations. And in
Kampala, President Yoweri Museveni is considering a Chinese
company's radical offer to become the national electricity provider.
CONGO-KINSHASA: President Kabila snubs US envoy Nikki
Haley and UN chief over elections as churches plan protests for next
month
Citing an extra demanding work schedule this week,
President Joseph Kabila is unavailable for meetings either with United
Nations Secretary General António Guterres or Nikki Haley, the United States Ambassador to
the UN. Both have voiced concerns about political conditions in Congo-Kinshasa as evidence suggests that Kabila wants to extend his time in
office.
Lambert Mende, Kabila's Information Minister,
insists the fuss over the two meetings is misplaced while Haley and
Guterres maintain a diplomatic silence. Guterres has been in Addis
Ababa this week and was preparing to meet Kabila in Kinshasa later in
the week.
So far, Kabila has steadfastly refused to say whether he plans
to change the constitution and run for a third term. The Haley and
Guterres meetings were due at a critical moment in the political
calendar. Candidates for the presidential elections, scheduled to take
place before the end of the year, are meant to register between 25 July
and 8 August. If this goes ahead and nominations close without Kabila's
intervention, it will be a critical signal.
Congo is one of the most important issues for Guterres this
year: it houses the UN's biggest and costliest peacekeeping operation.
UN staff fear the worsening political crisis could trigger fresh
conflict across the country and beyond. The US has been stepping up
sanctions on Kabila's allies accused of corruption but at the same time
wants to cut its contribution to UN peacekeeping operations, such as
Congo.
Next month, a coalition of Catholic church groups is to
organise protests across the country to press Kabila to leave office
and organise free elections. Previous protests by the group have met
with heavy state repression.
ETHIOPIA/ERITREA: Issayas and Abiy speed up political
and economic rapprochement after breakthrough meeting in Asmara
A month after Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced that his
government was to accept the 2000 peace agreement with Eritrea and
withdraw troops from the border area, the two countries have reopened
full diplomatic and commercial relations.
Although Abiy was warmly received during his ground-breaking
visit to Asmara on Sunday (8 July), there are difficult details still
to resolve on security arrangements, land rights and, perhaps,
compensation. Of the two leaders, Issayas has the most to gain in the
short term if Ethiopia can help his country end its isolation. Abiy's
position is riskier, with some senior security officials said to be
sceptical of the deal.
NIGERIA: People's Democratic Party agrees 38-party
opposition alliance to step up campaign against President Buhari
After several dissidents left the governing All
Progressives' Congress last week, the country's many opposition parties
have been belatedly putting together a united front to prepare for
elections due in February and March.
At the helm of this Coalition of Unity Political Parties is
the PDP, which claims the coalition members are committing to agree on
a common presidential candidate to challenge Buhari. Former
Vice-President Atiku Abubakar appears to have been
leading the negotiations for the unity front, drawing on his political
networks and cash reserves.
In the coming days, attention will focus on political
heavyweights Senate President Bukola Saraki and
former governor of Kano Rabiu Kwankwaso, who are said
to be on the brink of quitting the governing APC. They would add great
weight to the new coalition but would also be likely to want the
presidential candidacy, competing with each other and Atiku for the
nomination.
UGANDA: China's $3 billion bid for national power
company could get President Museveni's backing
Such is President Museveni's dissatisfaction with the performance of
the national electricity distributor, Umeme, that he is said to be
considering terminating its concession, which was due to last until
2025. Instead, he has been examining a US$3 billion bid by the China
Electric Power Equipment and Technology to supply and distribute
Uganda's electricity.
It would be a bold move by both sides, getting China even more
deeply involved in Uganda's economy. China already has substantial
stakes in the local oil industry and is promising to use smart
technology to improve the reliability of power supplies. But ending the
concession held by the stock exchange-listed Umeme would shake the
local financial markets could damage investor confidence.
The week ahead in very brief
SUDAN: Sacked spy chief Mohamed
Atta appointed Ambassador to US to push negotiations on
removing Khartoum from terror list
SOUTH AFRICA: Jacob Zuma's son Duduzane charged with corruption over links with the Gupta family and wielding
political influence
ITALY/LIBYA: New government in Rome
revives offer of $4 billion in investments if Tripoli agrees to accept
returnee migrants
SOUTH AFRICA/UNITED STATES: New chief of
McKinsey consultants apologises for links to graft scandal and admits
it overcharged on power contract