confidentially speaking
The Africa Confidential Blog
ETHIOPIA: Failed putsch presents tough choices for Prime Minister Abiy
Patrick Smith
We start in Addis Ababa in the aftermath of the failed coup
attempt over the weekend, and then to Zimbabwe where
the national dollar makes a comeback. In Nairobi, growing tensions
between the President and his Deputy worry the business class. The murk
surrounding international football federations casts a shadow over the
African Cup of Nations tournament. In South Africa,
President Ramaphosa doubles down on his support for
the shaky power utility and in Mauritania, General Abdel
Aziz shuffles his chosen successor into the presidency.
ETHIOPIA: Failed putsch presents tough choices for
Prime Minister Abiy
The government's claims to have captured and killed on
Monday (24 June) the organiser of the failed coup, in which five
political and military chiefs were killed, is just the start of the
fightback announced by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
Now, the test for one of the region's most feted reformers is whether
he will stick to his plan to liberalise politics and hold credible
elections next year.
At the heart of the crisis are cracks in the federal system,
fights over the balance of power between the regions and the centre in
Addis Ababa, and the legitimacy of the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front, a shaky coalition of regional
parties.
Regional party barons who fear the reforms will undermine them
are making populist appeals to ethnic sentiment. One observer spoke of
the risk of a 'slow-motion Yugoslav unravelling'.
In military fatigues, Abiy tried to reassure Ethiopians in a
television broadcast on Saturday (22 June) just hours after the
attacks. He said that Brigadier General Asaminew Tsige,
the head of Amhara regional government's peace and security board
released from detention last year, was behind the assassinations of the
President of Amhara Regional Government, Ambachew Mekonnen,
and a top advisor Ezez Waaie in the Amhara regional
capital of Bahir Dar.
At the same time, a military bodyguard shot and killed General
Seare Mekonnen, Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian
National Defence Force and Major General Gezai Abera,
a retired officer, in Addis Ababa. They were said to have been planning
a response to the unrest in Amhara region in recent weeks.
Security officials say the attacks were coordinated to create
the maximum impact. The head of Amhara region and the head of the army
were key allies of Abiy.
Disputes over boundaries and resources in Ethiopia's nine
regional states have multiplied over the past year. Some 2.9 million
people have fled their homes because of regional clashes.
ZIMBABWE: When in doubt - ban the dollar
Bankers in Harare see history completing a circle with
the announcement yesterday (24 June) that the US dollar and the South
African rand would no longer be legal tender in Zimbabwe. The
government's ban on the use of all foreign currencies is meant to stem
inflation, now nudging 100%, its highest level for a decade.
From now on, everyone will have to use the resurrected
Zimbabwe dollar – the Real Time Gross Settlement dollar – launched
in February as the first stage in the return of the local currency.
Ten years ago, the argument went the other way. Then Finance
Minister Tendai Biti, now a leading opposition
politician, suspended use of the Zimbabwe dollar whose value had been
devoured by stratospheric inflation running at hundreds of billions of
per cent. In its place he allowed the use of a basket of foreign
currencies, the most popular of which were the US dollar and the South
African rand. Inflation disappeared but the new problem was liquidity.
Now, opposition politicians are sceptical that banning the US
dollar can push back inflation. There isn't much faith in the revived
Zimbabwe dollar which trades for about half its official rate of
US$1=RTGS$6.2 on the parallel market.
Stocking up the foreign exchange reserves would help; the
central bank says it has secured inflows of $500 million but these
operations are shrouded in secrecy. There was another plan to raise the
overnight lending rate to 50%, from previous levels of 15%, to boost
demand for the revived local dollar.
If the IMF, with which the government has just signed a
staff-monitoring agreement, endorses the new currency, that would boost
some confidence.
But the key factor will be what is in the central bank's
reserves. And the government will face growing demands for transparency
over how it manages the hundreds of millions of dollars earned from
mineral exports and from sharply rising fuel taxes.
KENYA: Whispers of a third term for Kenyatta raises
tensions with his Deputy
President Uhuru Kenyatta and his
Vice-President William Ruto smiled for the cameras on
Friday (21 June) in Eldoret, one of the VP's strongholds, but the
battle over the succession is getting uglier.
Discord between Kenyatta and Ruto camps has been building
since opposition leader Raila Odinga bounced back
into a governmental role last year. After Odinga's celebrated handshake
with Kenyatta in March 2018, which was an elite pact about the previous
year's disputed elections, the two have been working together on a
range of projects, to the dismay of Ruto's camp.
Ruto's allies accuse the President of reneging on the promised
support for Ruto as his successor.
For the first time, there have been whispers among Kenyatta
loyalists about changing the constitution to extend his presidency
beyond 2022, although few believe that Kenyatta wants a third term.
Rift Valley leaders worry that the split between Kenyatta and
Ruto – the governing Jubilee party's two principals – is bad for
business. The party, whose parliamentary caucus has not met since the
last election, is looking moribund. Several major infrastructure
projects in the Rift Valley have stalled.
Early on Monday (24 June), it was announced that four cabinet
secretaries were being questioned by police on allegations of threats
against Ruto's life.
MAURITANIA: The general's election
It was another victory for military politician General
Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz who has transited from coup-maker, attracting
sanctions from both the African Union and European Union, to elected
civilian president, sitting at the high tables of international
diplomacy.
Now, Gen Abdel Aziz has manoeuvred his protégé and defence
minister, Mohamed Ould Cheikh el Ghazouani, into
position as his successor. In last week's elections, Ghazouani won the
presidency with 52% of the votes, enough to avoid a second round of the
poll.
The lead opposition candidates – who did not contest the 2014
polls which re-elected Abdel Aziz – have all cried foul, accusing the
electoral commission of bias.
Anti-slavery campaigner Biram Ould Dah Abeid,
who was the main challenger and took 18.5% of the poll, described the
result as 'like a coup d'état'. It's hard to see the results being
challenged by the constitutional council.
The results should offer encouragement and a warning to the
opposition forces, who recently ended an election boycott, that they
need to work together. Abeid killed off the idea of a single opposition
candidate early on when insisting that he would stand regardless of
what rival oppositionists did.
FIFA: CAF-kaesque
The Confederation of African Football (CAF) has
again found itself in the spotlight for the wrong reasons, as its
flagship tournament began in Egypt, with its
President Ahmad Ahmad suspended pending a corruption
probe. FIFA Secretary General Fatma Samoura has been
appointed 'Fifa General Delegate for Africa' for six months in a bid to
improve governance on the continent.
The Malagasy Ahmad faces a probe into the
handling of previous Africa Cup of Nations tournaments, and the role of
France-based Tactical Steel, which has become a
key supplier of equipment to CAF.
While deeply embarrassing for the CAF – Samoura's
appointment was announced the day before the start of AfCON – the
move also exposes a rift within football's governing bodies. European
governing body, UEFA, opposed FIFA's decision.
SOUTH AFRICA: Eskom too big to fail
President Cyril Ramaphosa doubled down on the importance
of saving power utility Eskom in his first post-election State of the
Union speech on 20 June, promising a 230 billion rand ($16 billion)
support package. 'Eskom is too vital to our economy to be allowed to
fail,' he said.
The money will be included in an emergency appropriations bill
that the government hopes Parliament will pass in August.
Economic observers and markets appear to have been pacified by
Ramaphosa's first State of the Union since May's elections – the main
message of which was firing up an economy on the brink of recession.
The struggling rand posted a modest gain against the dollar in the
hours after the speech. But it's only a temporary respite.
THE WEEK AHEAD IN BRIEF
SUDAN: Students and rights groups plan
big protest on 30 June to push the military to hand power to civilian
council
NIGERIA: Gaining power, central bank governor
Emefiele announces a season of bank
consolidation and reorganisation
SENEGAL: President Macky Sall's
brother Aliou steps down after revelations over oil
company payments
