confidentially speaking
The Africa Confidential Blog
KENYA: After court overturns Kenyatta's victory, opposition wants sweeping reforms to electoral commission ahead of poll re-run
Patrick Smith
We start in Kenya this week where the shock
of the Supreme Court's decision to annul the presidential election is
still being felt. Opposition movements and election petitioners across
Africa have been heartened by the ruling. Some of the international
analysts and observers who had rushed to endorse Uhuru Kenyatta's
victory have sounded a note of humility as they await the court's full
ruling. There is mixed news about China's
multi-billion dollar deals in Nigeria. The family of
a front-line political dissident in Rwanda, Diane
Rwigara, say she has disappeared after a police raid but
government officials contradict them. And Cyril Ramaphosa,
South Africa's Deputy President, is facing a
slew of dirty tricks which some are linking to outgoing President Jacob
Zuma.
KENYA: After court overturns Kenyatta's victory,
opposition wants sweeping reforms to electoral commission ahead of poll
re-run
Critical decisions about the timing of the re-run
election and the management of the electoral commission will have to be
made quickly in the aftermath of the Supreme Court's decision to annul
Uhuru Kenyatta's victory in the 8 August presidential election. Key to
this will be the publication of the full written opinion by Chief
Justice David Maraga setting out the reasons why four
of the six judges sitting on the case decided to annul the result.
Although Maraga has 21 days to release it, political insiders expect to
see it later this week.
If the judgement relies mainly on evidence of procedural
faults in the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission's
management of the polls – such as tallying discrepancies between
results recorded at the polling stations and those posted
electronically – fresh elections may be held without a major
reorganisation of the responsible institutions.
However, if Maraga's written judgement backs the claims by
opposition leader Raila Odinga that there was
widespread interference with the IT systems that tallied and relayed
the presidential results, many will demand a wholesale restructuring of
the IEBC. That could make it make it extremely difficult to meet the
deadline of holding fresh elections by 31 October.
There are already loud calls from the opposition for Wafula
Chebukati, chairman of the IEBC, to stand down immediately.
Within hours of the judgement on 1 September, President Kenyatta said
he would accept Chief Justice Maraga's decision despite his strong
disagreement. But back on the campaign trail a day later, Kenyatta
referred to Maraga and his colleagues as 'dishonest people', arguing
that the ability of a Court to annul a popular verdict was a problem
that needed 'to be fixed'.
Political and community responsibility will be tested to the
limit in the coming weeks.
NIGERIA: As Chinese oil giant faces international
bribe probe, Beijing agrees to finance $5.8 billion Mambilla hydro
scheme
The United States' investigations are
escalating into claims that China's Sinopec paid $100 million in bribes
to Nigerian officials to resolve a US$4 billion dispute during
negotiations to take over Addax, the Geneva-based oil trading outfit.
After a company official was arrested in Geneva in March on corruption
charges, the Swiss authorities fined Sinopec 31 mn. Swiss
francs ($33 mn.).
This case could prove extremely embarrassing for Sinopec,
which is listed on the New York Stock Exchange, if the US Department of
Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission press ahead with
their own investigations.
However, the dispute shows no signs of derailing the
burgeoning relations between Beijing and Abuja. Indeed, as US companies
cut their investments in Nigeria's oil industry as well as their
purchases of Nigerian crude, their Chinese counterparts are stepping up
trade with Africa's biggest producer. This month Power Minister Babatunde
Fashola announced that China's Civil Engineering Construction
Corporation has won a $5.8 bn. contract to build the 3,000 Megawatt
Mambilla hyrdro-electric plant. China Exim Bank will finance 85% of the
contract with Nigeria providing the rest. The project is to take six
years, said Fashola.
RWANDA: Disqualified presidential contender and regime
critic is missing after arrest, say family
The whereabouts of Diane Rwigara, a human rights
activist who was barred from contesting last month's presidential
election, are unknown, say her family, following a police raid on her
house in Kigali last week. Rwigara and three siblings were taken from
her house for questioning on 29 August, according to the police who
insist none of them were detained.
Until three years ago, Rwigara's father Assinapol
had been close to President Paul Kagame and other top
figures in the ruling Rwanda Patriotic Front, but he fell out with them
and in February 2015 died in a car crash which his family and others
insist was a murder.
Her father's death pushed Diane, a chartered accountant, into
politics. Rwigara's application to run in the presidential election was
rejected after the government said that some of the over 1,000
signatures backing her candidacy had been forged.
Following that rejection, Rwigera announced she would start a
new political group, the People's Salvation Movement. Days later the
Rwandan revenue authority said that the family company, Premier
Tobacco, owes 6.6 bn. Rwandan francs ($7.8 mn.) in back taxes.
GHANA: After Accra mission, IMF sees signs of economic
recovery and extends programme for another year
A decision last week by the International Monetary Fund
to extend its credit facility to Ghana for another
year has resolved a glitch in its relations with President Nana
Addo Akufo-Addo's government. For several months, top
officials in Akufo-Addo's government had said they wanted an early end
to the IMF facility as it was unnecessary both in terms of the
financing it brought and its macro-economic conditions.
In June, Germany invited Ghana to join its
Africa economic partnership programme which would yield more financing
than the IMF's three year $930 mn. facility.
There were other complicating factors to the IMF's relations
with Ghana's new government. Many officials had wanted the IMF to be
far more critical of the previous government's breach of its
commitments to the fund on the budget deficit and state spending.
Instead, the IMF had issued a highly diplomatic statement about 'its
concerns' three months prior to last December's national elections.
Since the Akufo-Addo government took over, the IMF has been
far more forthright about Ghana's economic plight and has made stern
warnings about borrowing plans. In last week's statement, IMF officials
referred to 'encouraging steps' by the authorities and signs of
'economic recovery'. Both fund officials and commercial bankers say the
Akufo-Addo government is much more serious about budgetary discipline
than its predecessor. This year the budget deficit is forecast at 6.3%,
compared with 9.3% last year.
SOUTH AFRICA: Ramaphosa faces 'apartheid-style' dirty
tricks in race to lead ANC
Two leading African National Congress figures –
Secretary General Gwede Mantashe and Chief Whip Jackson
Mthembu – have condemned 'dirty tricks' against Deputy
President Cyril Ramaphosa's campaign for the leadership of the party.
They said there is evidence that state resources and intelligence
service personnel were used to hack Ramaphosa's email accounts.
Apart from damaging Ramaphosa’s electioneering, the stories,
which broke over the weekend, may distract attention from what could be
another difficult week for President Jacob Zuma. Tomorrow (5
September), the Constitutional Court is due to rule on whether there
should be a judicial investigation into Zuma's breaching of the
constitution. Also on 5 September, opposition parties in parliament are
to push ahead with a vote for an early election to cut short Zuma's
second term.
Referring to the hacked emails, the Johannesburg weekly, the Sunday
Independent contacted Ramaphosa with a slew of questions about
alleged marital infidelities. In response to the newspaper's story,
Ramaphosa issued a lengthy rebuttal of the accusations and some of the
women named in the account have come forward to back his version of
events.
Mantashe went on to say the tricks were reminiscent of tactics
used by the former apartheid regime. That is about as damning as
condemnations get in the ANC. Although it's clear they were suggesting
the involvement of President Zuma in the dirty tricks both men stopped
short of referring to Zuma by name. Nor did they make any reference to
Zuma's ex-wife Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma,
who is Ramaphosa's main rival in the leadership contest.
IN VERY BRIEF
ZAMBIA: Top Nigerian diplomat to mediate
between President Edgar Lungu and opposition leader Hakainde
Hichelema
UNITED STATES/UNITED NATIONS:
US President Donald Trump will host special
conference pushing reforms and cuts in UN funding on 18 September
BURUNDI: UN Commission of Inquiry on Burundi
calls for the International Criminal Court to probe claims of war
crimes by President Pierre Nkuruniziza's regime
