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The Africa Confidential Blog
KENYA: Questions remain over election but opposition challenge to Kenyatta win loses steam
Patrick Smith
We start this week with the smouldering aftermath of Kenya's elections last week, and then to moves by President Jacob Zuma and his allies in South Africa to hit back at dissidents in the governing party. A lethal attack on a restaurant in the capital of Burkina Faso is seen by some as a response to the G5 regional anti-terror force and Ethiopia's parliament has voted to lift its State of Emergency although few expect any easing of other constraints on the opposition.
KENYA: Questions remain over election but opposition challenge to Kenyatta win loses steamAfter a weekend of clashes between protestors and police, in which more than 25 people lost their lives, opposition leaders are struggling to mobilise their supporters for mass action against the disputed election result. A general strike called for today (14 August) has been greeted with a half-hearted response in the country's major cities, including the capital, Nairobi.
There are signs that opposition candidate Raila Odinga is losing the support of allies over his unyielding rejection of the official result, which gave President Uhuru Kenyatta a winning margin of about 11%. Opposition legal expert James Orengo says there would be no point in taking the commission to court over the results but said there were plenty of other constitutional options to pursue. Odinga is due to set out his strategy tomorrow (15 August).
Many activists and electoral experts have concerns about the official results and management of the poll, as well as the vulnerability of the electoral commission's database to hacking, and recommend an independent investigation. A parallel voter tabulation by the local independent Elections Observation Group (Elog) produced figures close to the officials results released on Friday.
There are also questions about the government's investigation into the torture and murder of Chris Msando, the top expert in information technology at the electoral commission. Kenyatta's government quickly rejected offers of help in the investigation from Britain and the United States and called on Kenyans not to speculate about the motives or identities of the killers.
SOUTH AFRICA: ANC dissidents face revenge after Zuma survives no-confidence vote but the Guptas could be dumpedSome of the strongest voices in the African National Congress against President Jacob Zuma will face disciplinary action after he defeated an embarrassing motion of no-confidence on 8 August. The most conspicuous rebels include former ministers of finance and agriculture Pravin Gordhan and Derek Hanekom as well as the outspoken Makhosi Khoza from KwaZulu-Natal.
After Zuma demanded the ANC dissidents face disciplinary action, his ex-wife and a candidate to succeed him as party president, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, and ANC Women's League President Bathabile Dlamini, backed his call, even though their position is likely to exacerbate party divisions.
Over the weekend Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, Dlamini-Zuma's closest rival in this year's presidential race, said there should be far tougher action against corporate interests trying to capture the South African state. That is code for taking on the Gupta family, who have been Zuma's closest business allies.
As more details leak out about the relationship between Zuma and the Guptas, his ties to this wealthy Indian family have become one of the president's biggest political liabilities. Many business analysts think that he is looking for a way to sever all ties with the family in a bid to shut down further state investigations into his personal finances.
BURKINA FASO: 18 killed in suspected jihadist attack on restaurant in capitalThree men armed with machine-guns killed 18 people at a Turkish restaurant in Ouagadougou on Sunday evening (13 August) in the country's worst terror attack for a year and a half. No group has yet claimed responsibility but the tactics resemble those of jihadist attacks in the region.
The shootings may an attempt to weaken Burkina Faso's resolve to step up counter-terror operations as part of its membership of the French-backed G5 alliance with Mali, Niger, Chad and Mauritania, all of which have been targeted by Islamist militants.
ETHIOPIA: State of emergency lifted but grievances increasing over rights and resourcesThe vote by Ethiopia's parliament on 4 August to end the country's State of Emergency does not presage political liberalisation or the easing of restrictions on opposition groupings, according to local and international human rights organisations. After clashes with security forces last year, thousands of oppositionists remain in detention and none of their grievances have been addressed, according to the New York-based Human Rights Watch.
This formal vote to end the emergency by the parliament, which has no opposition members, could make it easier for the government to secure investment and trade deals with companies concerned about reputational and political risk.
Despite scepticism about its official economic data, Ethiopia is still one of Africa's fastest growing economies and biggest markets after Nigeria. Apart from a threat by Aliko Dangote's cement conglomerate to pull out of Ethiopia as a protest against bureaucratic constraints imposed by the regional government in Oromia, few big companies have responded publicly to political developments in the country.
IN VERY BRIEF
LIBYA: Oil exports fall dramatically after threats on Sharara fields and strikes close Zueitina oil port
EGYPT: Saudi Arabia's Prince Al Waleed bin Talal is to invest $800 million in tourism at Sharm el Sheikh amid rapid expansion of Cairo's stock market
AFRICA: Over 300 financial technology (fintech) companies have raised over $180 mn. in the past two years, says 'Disrupt Africa' report
