confidentially speaking
The Africa Confidential Blog
LIBERIA: Last week of campaigning ahead of watershed national elections as President Johnson-Sirleaf prepares her exit
Patrick Smith
The election countdown is on in Liberia with
the field still wide open. Across in Kenya, the main
parties argue over how to reform the electoral commission before the
presidential election of August can be re-run. In neighbouring Uganda, veteran President Yoweri Museveni faces heavy
opposition to a self-serving plan to abolish the age limit of 75 on
heads of state. President Muhammadu Buhari's show of
solidarity with the troops in north-east Nigeria fighting the jihadist Boko Haram militia follows yet another
speech about the threat of secessionist movements in the south of the
country.
LIBERIA: Last week of campaigning ahead of watershed
national elections as President Johnson-Sirleaf prepares her exit
The national elections due on 10 October are the most open political
contest in the country's history with at least three strong candidates
vying for the presidency. Because the election is likely to go to a
second round, contenders are steering a difficult path between building
up their own bases and attacking their rivals. The successful candidate
will have to build a broad-based alliance to win in the second round.
Although opinions vary on Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf's
record, and many of her strongest supporters are overseas, she is the
first leader to organise a democratic succession. She says she is
determined remain in Liberia as a private citizen after the transition.
So far, the race has been dominated by: Johnson-Sirleaf's
self-effacing deputy Joseph Nyuma Boakai; veteran
presidential contender Charles Brumskine; former AC
Milan striker and winner of the Ballon d'Or, George
Weah; businessman-turned-politician Alex Cummings;
and MacDella Cooper.
Boakai presents himself as decent, competent and the
continuity candidate building on Johnson-Sirleaf's legacy, while
Brumskine prioritises economic diversification and breaking aid
dependency.
Weah, who chose Charles Taylor's ex-wife
Jewel Howard Taylor as his running mate, is
trying to maintain his appeal to young people. Cooper, the only female
candidate, pushes the importance of economic empowerment and the need
to tackle corruption. Cummings was a star performer in the presidential
debate and has new ideas about raising funds to develop roads and power
stations. He wants an independent prosecutor to tackle corruption.
KENYA: Stand-off between the two main parties over new
commission staff, rules and the election date
Preparations for the re-run of the presidential election due on 26
October have been further complicated after the opposition National
Super Alliance (NASA) walked out of negotiations over reforms to the
Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission. James Orengo,
a Senator and legal adviser to NASA, said his organisation would take
to the streets until the government accepted the need for a thorough
overhaul of the commission and its top management.
The governing Jubilee party, Orengo argued, is trying to
restructure the commission to reduce its independence from government.
If the two main parties – Jubilee and NASA – cannot agree on how to
reform the commission in the next few days, that leaves two difficult
options. Either hold the election on 26 October on terms that NASA
rejects and risk an opposition boycott; or postpone it for weeks or
months while the two protagonists argue over wider reforms to electoral
management.
UGANDA: Museveni to make next move to extend his
tenure after last week's parliamentary pandemonium was beamed around
the world
If President Yoweri Museveni, after over three decades in power, was
hoping to find a quiet way to extend his tenure, he was thwarted after
clashes between MPs over a bill to end the age limit of 75 for
presidents. Museveni will be 76 when the next elections are due in 2021.
Footage of fist-fights, chair-throwing and other mayhem in the
parliamentary chamber flashed around the world. One scene prompted a
commentary from South African satirist Trevor
Noah on the Daily Show in New York.
Back in Kampala, protestors took to the streets in sympathy
with the combatants in parliament. Given that his own National
Resistance Movement harbours increasing numbers of dissidents, Museveni
will have to tread carefully to avoid some form of broad coalition
blocking his plan for another term.
NIGERIA: President flies to Maiduguri to see troops on
Independence Day after making a call for national unity
Showing solidarity with his former comrades in the military, President
Muhammadu Buhari flew to Maiduguri – the centre of the Boko Haram insurgency in the
north-east – on Independence Day. Buhari's trip may also have been
intended to convey the message that he was fully recovered from his
long bouts of medical treatment for undisclosed ailments.
Buhari's trip followed another stern call for national unity
which singled out the secessionist movement in south-east Nigeria as a
serious threat. Any call for constitutional change '…should take place
in a rational manner', said Buhari. He had less to say about the Boko Haram insurgency, over which
the government has claimed victory. In the past year Boko Haram has intensified
operations in northern Cameroon and the southern
region of the Niger Republic, but has continued to
use young people in suicide attacks against mosques and market-places.
THE WEEK AHEAD IN BRIEF
CONGO-KINSHASA: The
United Nations sends troops to South Kivu after Mai-Mai Yakutumba
groups declare war against President Joseph Kabila's
government
CÔTE D'IVOIRE/GHANA: Governments
struggle to maintain payments to farmers as global cocoa prices fall by
over 40%
RWANDA: Police say
they have arrested oppositionist Diane
Rwigara for security offences but are yet to charge her in court
SOMALIA: Turkey
opens $50 million base in Mogadishu to train government forces and
boosts its exports
