confidentially speaking
The Africa Confidential Blog
MUGABE'S LEGACY DIVIDES ZIMBABWE: Economic crisis deepens ahead of IMF talks in Washington
Patrick Smith
We start in Harare – in the throes of economic and
political crises – with the funeral of Robert Mugabe,
and then to the first-round upsets in the presidential election in Tunisia.
Tanzania's leader gets cash from the World Bank
despite attacking civil rights and defying economic orthodoxy, and
finally, Zambia's President Lungu
admits the economy is in dire trouble.
MUGABE'S LEGACY DIVIDES ZIMBABWE: Economic
crisis deepens ahead of IMF talks in Washington
Economic crisis and political repression seemed to weigh
heavier on many people's minds than the solemn obsequies for a departed
leader. Local economists say inflation is running at over 500% and
doctors are protesting, claiming that the leader of their trade union, Peter
Magombeyi, was abducted by state security.
As the final arrangements for the state funeral were being
made, the central bank announced that it was raising the overnight
lending rate to 70% from 50% and that the born-again Zimbabwe dollar had depreciated 50% against the US dollar
since its reintroduction in late June.
Officials in Harare insist that the government's harsh
economic reforms will win the backing of the IMF at its annual meeting
in October. That could open the possibility of bridging finance to
allow the government to repay arrears to its multilateral creditors.
Whether it was economic hardship or political disillusionment,
there was a low turn-out at Harare's National Sports Stadium for Robert
Mugabe's last exit. The 60,000 capacity stadium was less than half-full
for the state funeral on Saturday (14 September), which was attended by
several African heads of state who all gave fulsome tributes.
The government's efforts to control the event only
half-worked. The Mugabe family insist that they will bury the
independence leader at a private ceremony in a specially designed
mausoleum. Giving in to pressure from the government, Mugabe's family
say they will allow the mausoleum to be built at the official burial
site for liberation fighters known as Heroes' Acre.
WORLD BANK RELENTS ON TANZANIA: Magufuli
continues the crackdown but gets the money anyway
President John Magufuli has won
another victory after the World Bank approved a US$450 million loan to
Tanzania on Friday (13 September). The Bank was one of many
international institutions to withhold funds from Tanzania over the
Magufuli government's ban on publishing statistics, as well as its
attacks on democracy and human rights.
The strong-arming of opposition politicians and civil society
activists continues. Journalist Erick Kabendera is
detained on multiple charges from treason and tax evasion to money
laundering.
Magufuli has shaken up his inner team, sacking intelligence
chief Modestus Kipilimba, and replacing him with Diwani
Athumani, a senior policeman who had headed the government's
anti-corruption bureau. The change is not thought to herald a thaw.
ZAMBIA'S SOUTHBOUND ECONOMY: Lungu
announces contradictory policies on austerity cuts and racking up new
debt
President Edgar Lungu has cut Zambia's economic growth
forecasts for 2019 against a backdrop of debt and drought. In his state
of the nation address on Friday (13 September), he said that growth
would be 2%, compared with the previously forecast 4%, because of
'adverse weather conditions which have affected the energy and
agricultural sectors.'
Lungu says the government would delay some projects and cancel
others to cut expenditure and debt, but detail is lacking. 'The art of
borrowing is the ability to pay back,' the President said, even though
many worry that Zambia is on the brink of, if not already in, debt
distress.
He insisted that his government will press ahead with
constitutional amendments to remove lawmakers' rights to approve new
government loans. That does not suggest an appetite for reining in new
borrowing.
TUNISIA'S ELECTORAL SPRING: Voters
deliver a stinging rejection of the old guard
Anti-establishment candidates have claimed victory in
Sunday's (15 September) presidential elections as the electorate
signalled its anger with the post-Arab Spring political class.
Preliminary results come out on Tuesday, but constitutional lawyer Kaïs
Saïed and media mogul Nabil Karoui claimed
they topped the polls. If that is true, they will face each other in
the run-off slated for early October.
The low turnout – just 45% – surprised and disappointed in
equal measure. Karoui is still in jail pending an investigation for
money-laundering, which the government denies is politically motivated.
His lawyers confirmed that on the eve of the first-round poll an appeal
for his release was rejected.
The votes for Karoui and Saïed will be a blow both to Prime
Minister Youssef Chahed and Abdelfattah Mourou,
heading a first-time bid for Islamist-inspired party Ennahda.
NO EUROPEAN UNION RESET ON AFRICA: New
EU Commission team fails to create a special Africa post
Hopes that European Commission President-elect Ursula
von der Leyen would appoint a commissioner specifically for
Africa have disappointed those wanting a fresh policy approach to the
continent. The commissioners-designate now go before European
Parliament committees for hearings.
The three commissioners dealing with EU-Africa relations will
be Foreign Affairs High Representative Josep Borrell Fonteilles;
Commissioner for 'Protecting the European Way of Life' Margaritis
Schinas, whose portfolio includes migration control; and
International Partnerships Commissioner Jutta Urpilainen.
The nomination of Urpilainen, a Finnish parliamentarian who served as her country's special envoy to Ethiopia,
has been widely welcomed, but the nominations of Borrell and Schinas
from Spain and Greece respectively,
suggests that the EU's preoccupation with migration control will
continue. Borrell, in particular, had called for Brussels to offer more
funds to North African countries to curb migration.
The only significant change is the replacement of the
'development' commissioner with a commissioner for 'international
partnerships', and it is unclear whether this marks a rhetorical or
substantive change.
IN BRIEF FOR THE COMING WEEK
ALGERIA'S ELECTION IN DOUBT: Interim
government announces presidential election for 12 December but mass
opposition rally rejects the schedule again
EGYPTIAN CORRUPTION ON CAMERA: President Abdel Fattah el Sisi dismisses claims in a video of grand
corruption in his regime as 'lies and slander'
NEXT STEP IN SUDAN'S PEACE TRAIL: Confidence-building, then new ruling council in Khartoum is to launch
peace process with rebel groups in October
