confidentially speaking
The Africa Confidential Blog
NIGERIA/UNITED STATES: Islamic State threat and business likely to top agenda of Trump-Buhari summit
Patrick Smith
We start in Washington with a West African theme – on the
summit meeting of Nigeria's President Muhammadu
Buhari and United States President Donald
Trump. Security will dominate those talks, as it does
relations between Washington and Niger where
a new US drone base is nearing completion. Across the continent in
East Africa, the rivalry between Kenya and Uganda over
oil intensifies. And in South Africa, the African
National Congress appears about to push out Supra
Mahumapelo, premier of the troubled North-West Province.
NIGERIA/UNITED STATES: Islamic State threat and
business likely to top agenda of Trump-Buhari summit
Abuja's diplomats have been in overdrive preparing for
the presidential summit today (30 April) between President Buhari and
President Trump, which was called at the White House's request. An
Africa-focused lobbyist told Africa Confidential that
senior Nigerian officials were still trying
to find out why President Trump had invited Buhari – only the second
foreign leader to have received the call.
Some insiders say it is part of an attempt to reset US-Africa
relations after the furore over reports of Trump's derogatory comments
in January about the continent. There is also regional frustration at
the sacking of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson half-way
through his first tour of Africa.
The agenda is likely to be dominated by security, particularly
the expansion of operations by Islamic State in West Africa (ISWA) in
the region and its alliance with the Abu Masab al
Barnawi faction of Boko Haram. Last week, the
Barnawi faction attacked the military headquarters in Maiduguri,
capital of Borno State, triggering a firefight with soldiers, police
and local vigilante groups.
In Benue State, where 17 were killed in an Islamist militia
attack on a Catholic church on 24 March, there are fears that the
militants are trying to exploit communal clashes in the Middle Belt.
US intelligence estimates reckon that ISWA could have as many
as 5,000 fighters in the region, who are far better equipped and
trained than the Boko Haram militia led by Abubakar
Shekau. Yet Nigeria's military commanders have been wary
historically of close ties with the US military in the region, despite
a series of arms deals between the two countries over the past three
years.
One of the these – the sale of Super Tucano ground-attack
aircraft to the Nigerian Air Force – is being scrutinised by the
National Assembly. Representatives claim the government-to-government
deal was arranged for three times the average international price for
the aircraft package. They also complain that the Assembly was not
consulted, as required by law, about the deal.
Trump is also expected to raise his government's concerns
about difficulties experienced by US energy companies in the Nigerian
market, compared to their Indian and Chinese counterparts.
However, India became the leading customer for Nigeria's Bonny light
oil, mainly because the US's development of shale oil substituted for
imported crude.
NIGER/UNITED STATES: Over 800 US troops in Sahel as
$110 million drone base at Agadez nears completion
As President Mahamadou Issoufou's government
faces growing opposition over its security and migration deals with
foreign governments, the US is stepping up military operations. There
is a major push to open the US's new drone base at Agadez, in the
centre of the country. Over 800 US troops are working closely with a
team of 2,000 Nigerien Special Forces on operations against jihadist
elements in the Sahel.
The Agadez base will be able to launch armed and unarmed
Predator drones over most of the Sahel and Libya.
Work on the base is over a year behind schedule and US$20 mn. over
budget.
KENYA/TANZANIA/UGANDA: Kampala edges ahead of Nairobi
in the great East African pipeline race
Uganda says it will make the final investment decision on its
1400-kilometre pipeline to Tanzania's coast
by the end of this year – six months earlier than planned. The
pipeline, to be jointly owned by Uganda and Tanzania, is to cost an
estimated $3.5 billion. Growing political uncertainties in both
countries and worries about increasing indebtedness could further raise
the cost of the project, according to industry sources.
The two regional pipelines point to an escalation of the
resource rivalry between Uganda and Kenya. Two years
ago, Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni halted
plans to build a pipeline to Kenya in favour of a route through
Tanzania, a much longer and more expensive undertaking. Uganda says it
wants to start commercial oil production by the end of 2020, some two
years ahead of the rival Kenya project.
Last week Kenya announced it had appointed the British-based
Wood Group as its design consultants on its 890 km pipeline from the
Lokichar basin to a terminal at Lamu. Officials spoke of a target date
of 2021-2022 for Kenya's commercial oil production, saying a major
fund-raising effort will get under way once design details have been
finalised.
SOUTH AFRICA: Drive to push out Supra Mahumapelo from
North-West provincial premiership gathers steam
This week ANC officials decide whether or not to convene a
special National Executive Committee meeting to take emergency action
on the deepening crisis in North-West. Such a meeting could see
the ousting of premier Supra Mahumapelo, a key ally of
ex-President Jacob Zuma, after the discovery
of massive corruption in the provincial government's health department.
Last week the health department was taken into administration
by the central government in Pretoria. Insiders say those provisions
could be extended to several other departments, effectively declaring a
state of emergency in the province. Less than a third of the provincial
government's departments have met the basic standards for
accountability set by the Auditor General.
The ANC team tasked with dealing with the crisis will be led
by Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, who was the main rival
to President Cyril Ramaphosa in last
December's leadership elections.
THE WEEK AHEAD IN VERY BRIEF
MALAWI: Joyce Banda's return home will test
justice system and President Mutharika's
corruption claims
ETHIOPIA: Term limits for prime ministers
mooted by new premier Abyi Ahmed
FRANCE: Next phase in investigation into
Bolloré's empire will targets government deals in Guinea and Togo
MOROCCO: King Mohammed VI extends influence in Central Africa after signing Congo river deal in
Brazzaville
