confidentially speaking
The Africa Confidential Blog
Obasanjo's counsel
Blue Lines
For the past four decades there has been a recurring motif in Nigerian politics. A new government
takes power on the crest of popular approval
but soon falls short of expectations.
The sequence started with Shehu
Shagari's National Party of Nigeria government, which was then
overthrown by General Muhammadu Buhari
in December 1983. Buhari's regime was overthrown in a
palace coup by General Ibrahim
Babangida in August 1985. A popular uprising
followed the annulling of an election in 1993, and General Sani Abacha
seized power. After the restoration of constitutional rule, Olusegun
Obasanjo was elected president, handing over in 2007 to Umaru Musa Yar'Adua, who died in
2010, leaving his Vice-President Goodluck
Jonathan to
take over. By 2014, popular opinion had moved decisively against
Jonathan and he was overwhelmingly defeated by Muhammadu Buhari in 2015.
On each occasion, Obasanjo, in his role as a 'founding father',
has published an open letter criticising the incumbent and calling for
change. And change has duly happened. His letter of 24 January urging
Buhari not to seek re-election next year continues the theme. So far,
the response from officials in Abuja has been muted irritation but
activists in the governing party are likely to take it much further,
given Obasanjo's influence. If nothing else, it has opened up the
debate about the country's political system, the quality of governance,
and accountability.
