confidentially speaking
The Africa Confidential Blog
SOUTH AFRICA: Close-run confidence vote looms after Zuma sacks Gordhan
Patrick Smith
Again, we start in the week in South Africa as the country and its
politicians react to President Jacob
Zuma's sacking of Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan. A different level of
power play is going on in Abuja where the head of Nigeria's anti-corruption
organisation has just launched a damning report on President of the
Senate, Bukola Saraki. And
then to Washington where Egypt's
President Abdel Fatah el Sisi
is due to meet with President Donald
Trump and the other big summit in the United States is a Trump meeting
with China's President Xi Jinping where some diplomats hope
that Africa might provide one of the few points of agreement.
SOUTH AFRICA: Close-run
confidence vote looms after Zuma sacks Gordhan
This time the numbers may not work for President Jacob Zuma. Under
siege within the top echelons of the governing African National
Congress after his peremptory sacking of Finance Minister Pravin
Gordhan and deputy Mcebisi Jonas
in a reshuffle late on 30 March, Zuma could face a tough no-confidence
vote in parliament within ten days.
On 2 April, parliamentary speaker Baleka Mbete announced she would
return early from an overseas trip to consult on opposition party
requests for parliament to be recalled – it is currently in recess
until 3 May – to hold a confidence on Zuma.
Until now, Zuma and his acolytes, relying on the ANC's 62%
majority in the 400-seat parliament, have easily seen off four
confidence votes launched by the opposition parties since 2009. In the
last such vote last November, several dissident MPs and ministers
failed to attend the vote, but most of the ANC's 249-strong
parliamentary caucus backed Zuma.
This time top ANC officials such as Vice-President Cyril Ramaphosa, Secretary General Gwede Mantashe and Treasurer General
Zweli Mkhize have
publicly criticised Zuma, and several senior figures in the party have
said they would vote according to their conscience. The South African
Communist Party has publicly opposed Zuma's reshuffle, specifically the
sacking of Gordhan and Jonas.
The timing of the vote could prove critical as Zuma's
opponents would want to maximize the the current wave of hostility to
the President. Their best chance would be to reconvene parliament
before Easter.
At least 70 ANC MPs would have to vote against Zuma to get the
simple majority needed for a no-confidence motion to succeed. That now
looks possible with opinion in the country and party moving strongly
against Zuma.
A successful vote of no confidence would trigger an
extraordinary meeting of the ANC's National Executive Committee in
which Zuma would be likely to face a motion for his recall. That was
the fate of former President Thabo
Mbeki, who was brought down in 2008 after an extended and
skilful campaign against him by Zuma. The usurper then could now meet
the same fate this year.
EGYPT/USA: El Sisi and Trump
confer on anti-Islamist fight
An assiduous wooer of Donald J Trump, Egypt's President Abdel Fatah el
Sisi will become the first Middle East leader to meet the new US
President in Washington DC on 3 April. El Sisi, who was the first
international leader to congratulate Trump on his election victory last
November, seeks military and diplomatic backing for his fight against
Islamist groups.
First prize for El Sisi would be for Trump to endorse the
Eguptian leader's ban on the Muslim Brothers, Al Ikhwan el Muslimeen, with a
declaration that the US would treat the group as a terrorist
organisation. That would have serious consequences for the group's
finances and its supporters in countries such as Qatar and Turkey.
El Sisi is also looking for US financial help. Egypt is a
third of the way through a $12 billion adjustment programme backed by
the International Monetary Fund but inflation is running at about 30%
after the government let the pound float, and it has lost half its
value against convertible currencies.
The two may also discuss the war in Libya where rogue general Khalifa Haftar, backed by Egypt and
the United Arab Emirates, has
been trying to win US security and diplomatic support for his campaign
against Islamist militias in the west of the country.
NIGERIA: Anti-corruption czar
releases dossier on Senate president
The rumbling row between Ibrahim Magu,
chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission and Bukola
Saraki, the President of the Senate has escalated into a full-blown
political clash over claims about the corrupt diversion of N3.5 billion
(US$11 million).
Over the weekend Magu's office released a report accusing
Saraki's aides of having used some N3.5 billion to bribe National
Assembly members to drop an investigation into the whereabouts of
overpayments made by state governments to the Treasury to meet debt
service obligations. Following the government's negotiation of some $18
bn. of debt relief with the Paris Club of official creditors in 2005,
state governments were owed a refund on the sums they had submitted to
service the debts.
The EFCC report claims that part of the debt relief sent to
the state governor's forum, chaired by Saraki at the time, was
improperly diverted. But Senators such as Ali Wakili and Fatima Raji-Rasaki, both staunch
allies of Saraki, have rubbished the EFCC allegations. This row follows
the Senate's rejection, for the third term running, of President Muhammadu Buhari's request for Magu
to be confirmed as substantive chairman of the EFCC.
There is now a stalemate between the Presidency and the Senate
over the matter. The latest row between Saraki and Magu is unlikely
help any resolution: in theory, Magu's candidacy is finished but it
seems he still has some backing in the presidency. Next stage may
be some of the discreet negotiations in which Saraki is a specialist.
CHINA/USA: Could Africa be
point of agreement in Xi-Trump summit?
When China's President Xi Jinping meets President Donald J Trump in
Florida on 6-7 April, Africa policy could provide one of the few points
of agreement. At least, that is the view of a new report put together
by a team of senior diplomats urging a common China-US approach on key
issues confronting Africa. So far Trump has shown less interest in
Africa than in any other region. And it is an area where President Xi
has far more knowledge and experience than Trump.
The diplomats arguing for better China-US cooperation in Africa
include: Mohamed Ibn Chambas
who heads the United Nations office in West Africa; Zhong Jinhua, Beijing's former
special representative on African affairs; and Princeton Lyman, a former ambassador
for the US to Nigeria and South Africa. They mapped out substantive
areas of cooperation which included: economic growth and development;
mitigating conflict; enhancing political stability; and fighting
violent extremism and organised crime.
There are a few examples of Sino-US cooperation in Africa such as the
anti-piracy operations in the Horn of Africa and the their planned
replication in the Gulf of Guinea. There may also be room for talks
between the two leaders on other areas of security cooperation in
Africa, backing local efforts against jihadists and other insurgents.
But Xi will want to know much more about the Trump administration's
planned cuts to the UN and foreign assistance budgets, as well as its
renunciation of the Global Climate accords reached in Paris in December
2015.
