confidentially speaking
The Africa Confidential Blog
SOUTH AFRICA: National mourning for Winnie Madikizela-Mandela galvanises radicals as government tries balancing act
Patrick Smith
This week we start in Soweto where mourners are assembling
after the death of Winnie Madikizela-Mandela yesterday (2 April). And then to Addis Ababa, where there are hopes
that the new Prime Minister will be able to lead serious talks with the
opposition in the Amhara and Oromo regions. For Nigerians,
the herder-farmer clashes and attendant casualties are dominating
politics. Zimbabwe's President Mnangagwa is on a state visit to China – his only one before
the elections due in July. Also, government and opposition in Ghana are fighting it out in a dispute over the terms of a new security pact
with the United States.
SOUTH AFRICA: National mourning for Winnie
Madikizela-Mandela galvanises radicals as government tries balancing act
Within hours of the announcement of her death at 81, political leaders
on the left were falling over each other to praise Winnie
Madikizela-Mandela as a torch-bearer in the country's freedom struggle.
They focused on the glory days of the anti-apartheid struggle, in which
she stood defiant after being beaten, tortured and starved by the
apartheid regime.
A minority of voices – mainly journalists, civic activists and
centrist opposition politicians – picked out the depredations of
Madikizela-Mandela's later life when she faced charges of rights abuses
and corruption.
Yet her most enduring legacy looks likely to be bolstering the
cause of radical politics within the African National Congress and
among younger militants such as Julius Malema. After
quitting the ANC Youth League to form the Economic Freedom Fighters,
Malema found common cause with Madikizela-Mandela in his attacks on
former President Jacob Zuma for selling out South
Africa to business interests.
ETHIOPIA: New Premier Abiy Ahmed breaks with
precedent, talks national reconciliation and a deal with Eritrea
The first Oromo to hold national political leadership
since the foundation of the Ethiopian empire over
2,000 years ago, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's
appointment is a ground-breaking move on many levels. As his mother is
Amhara, Abiy can claim affinity with the country's two biggest
ethnic groups (Oromo are around 34%; Amhara are around 27%).
Over the last two years, opposition protests in the Amhara and
Oromo regions have rattled the federal government in Addis Ababa, which
has imposed a state of emergency and detained thousands of dissidents.
Over a month ago, Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn suddenly resigned, leaving a vacuum at the centre.
Now, the focus will be on the security services and their
willingness to permit some political reforms to meet the protestors'
demands. As a former top intelligence official, Ahmed has strong ties
within the security system, in which Tigrayans – about 6% of the
nation – predominate.
One of his first public calls as premier was to reopen talks
with Eritrea on settling their common border. Many in
the government suspect Egypt of financing Eritrea to
cause trouble in Ethiopia recently. Addis Ababa and Cairo are at
loggerheads over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which could
restrict the flow of the Nile in Egypt.
NIGERIA: Generals, faith leaders and now traditional
leaders sound warnings to Buhari over herder-farmer clashes
The Emir of Anka, Attahiru Ahmad, is
the latest prominent Nigerian to lambast President Muhammadu
Buhari's government for its mishandling of the herder-farmer
clashes. He follows in the footsteps of Generals Obasanjo, Danjuma and Babangida whose clear
message was that Buhari should not seek a second term.
Although the Emir avoided local political prescriptions, he
called for UN mediation in the crisis. Over the past month, over 100
people have been killed in these clashes in Zamfara state alone. The
crisis, perhaps part of a wider breakdown of law and order in northern
Nigeria, is outpacing the Boko Haram Islamist insurgency as a
security threat in the region.
ZIMBABWE: With US$6 billion of promised mining
investments from Africa and Europe, Mnangagwa signs a new deal with
China
It seems that some are listening to President Emmerson
Mnangagwa's oft-repeated mantra that 'Zimbabwe is open for business'.
Over the past month, a Cyprus-based financier, Loucas
Pouroulis, pledged $4.2 bn. for a platinum mining project and
South Africa's Moti Group is doubling its investments to $500 million.
There's more coming in the gold, chrome and diamond sector.
All that should be helping Mnangagwa's talks with President Xi
Jinping's government this week in Beijing. Although security
ties are close – China was one of the few governments to have known in
advance about plans to oust President Robert Mugabe last year – Beijing takes a hard-headed view on the debts that the
previous government has ratcheted up. Another bone of contention will
be the involvement of some Chinese-owned entities in Zimbabwe's
notoriously opaque diamond mining sector.
GHANA: Partisan row over US military cooperation deal
heats up after street demos and detention of leading oppositionist
The announcement of a $20 mn. security deal between
Washington and Accra was a gift to the ailing opposition National
Democratic Congress. On hearing of the deal, its caucus walked out of
parliament as radical opposition groups took to the streets in protest.
A leading NDC figure, Koko Anyidoho, was detained for
a couple of days and faces charges of threatening national peace after
suggesting the behaviour of the government could trigger a coup d'état.
Embarrassingly for the opposition, it has emerged that the
US-Ghana military deal, complete with infringements of sovereignty and
tax-free concessions for security equipment, was mooted under the
previous government led by the NDC's John Mahama. Now
both sides look stuck in the mire as they fight for the moral high
ground.
The week ahead in very brief
EGYPT: Dramatic fall in presidential election
turn-out to well under 40% as Abdel Fattah el Sisi claims 97% of the vote
ZAMBIA: Government expels Cuban
envoy Pages Vilas for attending opposition Socialist
Party rally in Lusaka
ISRAEL/AFRICA: Under pressure from
ultra-right, Prime Minister Netanyahu reneges on
commitments to UN on 30,000 migrants
UNITED NATIONS: Secretary General António
Guterres re-authorises probe into predecessor Dag
Hammarskjold's plane crash in 1961
