confidentially speaking
The Africa Confidential Blog
Stand by for election fever
Blue Lines
After this year’s cliff-hangers in Kenya,
South Africa and Zimbabwe, some may have expected a
brief respite from political drama in 2018. No chance. At least eight
countries are due to hold national elections next year.
The most strongly contested elections will be in Madagascar, Sierra Leone and Zimbabwe. Of the
three, Sierra Leone is the least predictable: Samura Kamara, presidential
candidate for the governing All People’s Congress Party, will struggle
to defend his party’s record. His main opponent is former military
leader Julius Maada Bio,
standing on the Sierra Leone People’s Party ticket, and the impressive
ex-United Nations official Kandeh
Yumkella. In Madagascar, two veteran political gladiators –
yoghurt king Marc Ravalomanana
and former DJ Andry Rajoelina
– will face off against the incumbent Hery
Rajaonarimampianina.
Civic activists and oppositionists are hoping for freer and fairer
elections in Zimbabwe after President Robert
Mugabe’s forced exit last month. Successor Emmerson Mnangagwa is sending mixed
signals: after promising a new democratic era, he is bringing his
military allies centre-stage. However, the opposition is betting that
the ruling party is less likely to bludgeon its foes out of the
election. Even the old methods of vote fixing should prove more
difficult under the new electoral rules.
Elsewhere, elections in Cameroon,
Egypt, Mali, South Sudan all look set to return
the incumbent to power.
