confidentially speaking
The Africa Confidential Blog
The week ahead in Africa: Kenya, South Africa, African football, Tanzania, Africa/China, Israel/Uganda
Patrick Smith
We start with the dramatic charging of top finance ministry
officials in Nairobi, and then head towards South Africa's
politicised legal dramas pitting two presidents and their proxies
against each other. A new mining deal in Tanzania could boost resource nationalism and African states give more backing
to China's Huawei, in spite of the US sanctions. A leaked document shows an Israeli tech
firm offering sophisticated spying technology to the Ugandan government.
KENYA: Prosecutor charges top finance officials as
scandal over dam contracts threatens allies of Deputy President Ruto
The government is in crisis after Director of Public
Prosecutions Noordin Haji ordered the arrest of
Finance Minister Henry Rotich as part of a probe into
rogue payments on multi-million dollar dam contracts.
Rotich is one of 25, including Treasury Principal Secretary Kamau
Thugge, Haji has linked to the dam scandal. Its impact goes to
the heart of the government because opponents of Deputy President William
Ruto insist he too should answer questions about the public
funding losses involved. Ruto has denied all wrongdoing.
Meanwhile, President Uhuru Kenyatta, who
tries to
stay apart from the worsening fight over the succession between Ruto
and his rivals, is likely to use the prosecutor's latest announcement
as proof that his war on corruption is sparing nobody – not even top
officials.
Rotich's arrest is likely to force Kenyatta to appoint a
replacement, at least while the case plays out. And that could take
months, if not years.
SOUTH AFRICA: Ramaphosa and Zuma locked in battle as
their proxies head for the courts and the streets
The
country's politicised courtroom dramas are to continue this week after
the Constitutional Court delivered a speedy rebuff on Monday (22 July)
to Public Protector Busisiwe Mkhwebane's finding that
President Cyril Ramaphosa had broken constitutional rules and the presidential ethics code in his
parliamentary statements about donations to his campaign for the
leadership of the African National Congress in 2016.
The judgement is the latest move in the battle between
Ramaphosa and the Public Protector, who was appointed by ex-President Jacob
Zuma and has been accused by critics of playing politics and siding with the
current president's opponents in the ANC's power struggle. She denies
the allegations, claiming they're trying to undermine her
investigations.
In a special press conference on 21 July, President Ramaphosa
said
that Mkhwebane's findings were 'fundamentally and irretrievably flawed'
and that she had exceeded her mandate.
Ramaphosa's allies accuse Mkhwebane of favouring her former
boss.
Her broadside against Ramaphosa comes as Zuma faces a second week of
tough questioning at the Zondo Commission in Johannesburg about his own
links to grand corruption and claims that he favoured his business
associates, the Guptas, in state contracts.
AFRICAN FOOTBALL: Politics and corruption fight take
centre-stage after continental tournament makes money but fails to
inspire
For many football fans, Algeria's
uninspiring 1-0 victory over Senegal in the final of the African Cup of Nations (AFCON) on Friday (19 July)
symbolised the crisis in the game on the continent. Two decades ago,
African teams challenged some of the best European and Latin American
sides, but they have lost out badly in recent international
competitions.
African football's governing body, the Confederation of
African
Football (CAF), has been stripped of its responsibilities, leaving it a
Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA)
protectorate.
CAF president Ahmad Ahmad was removed from
his post in April after CAF general secretary Amr Fahmy sent a letter to FIFA's Ethics Committee detailing bribes, financial
mismanagement and multiple counts of sexual harassment. The Ethics
Committee is investigating. Ahmad was arrested in Paris earlier this
month before being released without charge.
FIFA's Senegalese general secretary, Fatma Samoura,
has been in charge of the continent's football governance as 'FIFA
general delegate for Africa', since May.
Yet Africa's football industry is booming on and off the
field. Kenyan betting firm Sportpesa has become as
ubiquitous in Europe, particularly the UK,
as it is at home, while revenues and prize money from AFCON continue to
increase rapidly. The game's governance is still stuck in the third
division.
TANZANIA: international mining house boosts Magufuli's
resource nationalist credentials
Barrick Gold's $428 million takeover of Acacia Mining
will be spun by President John Magufuli as a victory for his resource nationalist strategy. It comes two years
after the government slapped Acacia with a $200 billion bill claim for
back taxes.
Then, the government stopped Acacia exporting gold and copper
concentrate. As part of the takeover deal, the government is to receive
a $300m fine and will benefit from a profit-sharing plan with Barrick.
Mark Bristow, Barrick's chief executive and a
reputed tough negotiator, has not been deterred by the Tanzania story.
Over the weekend, he said that the company plans 'extensive exploration
work' in Côte d'Ivoire.
That was the latest destination in his tour of African
countries, following stops in Mali and Congo-Kinshasa.
Bristow's message focused on the need for government support.
Magufuli's resource nationalism also has it supporters in Zambia,
where President Edgar Lungu's government is using
similar tactics against mining giant Vedanta's holdings at the Konkola
Copper Mine.
AFRICA/CHINA: Huawei ahead in geopolitics, technology
and economics in the next generation of mobile comms
African
governments are making it clear which side they favour in the wake of
the US's imposition of sanctions on China's tech giant Huawei. The
company has chosen Morocco to be the first African
country to launch its 5G network, while Kenya's IT minister Joseph
Mucheru has insisted that his government's plans for Huawei to
roll out its 5G network remain intact, regardless of Trump opening up a new frontier of the US-China trade dispute.
With regional headquarters in Casablanca and Johannesburg,
Huawei
has stepped up its courting of African governments in recent months.
The Nigerian and South African governments are also
backing the firm.
ISRAEL/UGANDA: Confidential papers show plans to spy
on Museveni's political rivals ahead of next election
Claims that President Yoweri Museveni's
government has hired an Israeli firm to spy on social media
communications follows an announcement by activist musician Bobi
Wine that he will run for the presidency in 2021.
Internal documents revealed by the Financial Times
on 19
July show that Israel's NSO has been lobbying the Museveni government
to buy its Pegasus spyware, which the firm claims can scrape user data
not only from smartphones, but also from cloud servers powered by
Apple, Google, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft.
NSO says it only sells Pegasus to 'responsible governments' to
fight crime and prevent terrorist attacks.
THE WEEK AHEAD IN BRIEF
NIGERIA: As insecurity worries rise amid
lacklustre
economic growth, the Central Bank meets tomorrow (23 July) to debate
interest rates and monetary policy
EGYPT: Fears mount over another terror attack
after British Airways and Lufthansa suspended flights to Cairo
TUNISIA: 'Battle of the Sheikhs' as leader of
the Ennahda, Rachid Ghannouchi, 78, plots
campaign to replace secular President Beji Caïd Essebsi,
92
LIBYA: Haftar's war on Tripoli to continue
but the Serraj government's revenues could bounce
back as production in the giant south-west Sharara oil field restarts
