confidentially speaking
The Africa Confidential Blog
ZIMBABWE: Both sides claim victory in elections after Mugabe attacks Mnangagwa and endorses oppositionist Chamisa
Patrick Smith
This week, it's votes galore – national elections in Zimbabwe and Mali, and a constitutional
referendum in the Comoros. All
of them are high-stakes votes whose effects will reverberate beyond
national boundaries. And as the debt crisis deepens in Zambia, the government is looking
for help from Turkey and China.
ZIMBABWE: Both sides claim victory in elections after
Mugabe attacks Mnangagwa and endorses oppositionist Chamisa
A last-minute intervention by ousted President Robert
Mugabe in the already-fraught national elections might just
help the opposition Movement for Democratic Change but big questions
remain about the security of the vote-counting and communication of
results after the polls closed yesterday (30 July).
The United States' former ambassador to
Harare, Johnnie Carson, who is leading a team of
election observers, has already raised alarms about the custody of the
ballots and the lack of an independent audit of the electoral register.
Leading MDC politician Tendai Biti said his
party would make the country ungovernable if the electoral commission
announced a rigged result. Results are due to be announced on 4 August,
but civic groups reckon they will have a clear picture later
on today (31 July).
Mugabe launched his broadside against the ruling Zimbabwe
African National Union-Patriotic Front and its presidential candidate, Emmerson
Mnangagwa, at a meandering two-hour press conference on Sunday
(29 July).
'I must say very clearly that I cannot vote for those that have
tormented me,' he told journalists, accusing Mnangagwa and allies of
organising a coup against him last November, and then mistreating his
family.
When pressed on how he would vote, Mugabe replied with a
cursory wave of the hand: 'What is left? It is only Chamisa… He seems
to be doing well and if he's elected I wish him well.' That endorsement
is a leap for Mugabe after 18 years of hostility to the MDC.
Although Mugabe's critique of Mnangagwa's leadership was
overwhelmingly personal, it could further exacerbate divisions and
tensions within the ruling party. Some suggest that party supporters
might vote for ZANU-PF parliamentary candidates but abstain in the
presidential vote.
Mugabe's intervention was enough to prompt Mnangagwa to issue
a statement that a vote for Chamisa would now be a vote for Mugabe. In
turn Chamisa held a press conference arguing that all support for his
party was welcome, from whatever source. Following those responses, the
electoral commission has said that two candidates have breached
electoral law, apparently referring to the statements by Mnangagwa and
Chamisa on 29 July, the day after campaigning formally closed.
MALI: Incumbent Keïta tipped to win second term
despite sporadic turnout and terror attacks on polling day
With a slick, well-funded campaign and raising the
spectre of worsening security should he lose power, President Ibrahim
Boubacar Keïta is reckoned by Bamako's political insiders to
be set for victory over his main rival, Soumaïla Cissé.
But most predict that Keïta's winning margin will be much lower than in
the 2013 elections.
Back then, Keïta campaigned as a guarantor of national
security, having brought in regional and French troops to help the national army deal with attacks from secessionist
groups and Islamist militants. Those claims have worn thin and violence
persists across the central and northern regions of the country,
despite a peace deal signed with Tuareg groups in 2015.
Two factors could upset Keïta's calculations: the electoral
irregularities cited by Cissé and another leading oppositionist, the
astrophysicist Cheick Modibo Diarra. And many younger
Malians, unimpressed by Keïta's economic management and failure to cut
back corruption, have joined the opposition campaign known as 'Father
must quit' aimed squarely at 73-year-old incumbent.
COMOROS: Opposition protest against referendum which
could give President Assoumani another decade in power
The third national poll this week in Africa could prove
to be its most contentious, drawing in regional and pan-African
organisations. The referendum on 30 July held across the three islands
in the Indian Ocean that make up the Comoros is an attempt by President
Azali Assoumani and his supporters to change the
constitution, allowing him another 10 years in power.
The changes would also end the system of rotating the presidency
between the three islands which was intended to keep a balance between
Grand Comore and the two smaller islands, Moheli and Anjouan. The
opposition have been mobilising with a campaign headlined 'No to
dictatorship', accusing Azali of unpicking the fragile power-sharing
agreement of 2001 for personal gain.
Ahmed Ben Said Jaffar, one of Azali's
Vice-Presidents, together with the governors of Anjouan and Grand
Comore, has appealed to the African Union to intervene. In 2008, the
continental body sent in troops to pre-empt a bid by secessionists in
Anjouan to break away from the union with the other two islands. After
an assassination attempt against the other Vice-President, and Azali's
suspension of the Constitutional Court, the political climate is
heating up.
ZAMBIA: Government looks to China and Turkey to
refinance debt but no structural reforms are in prospect
Although President Edgar Lungu and Finance Minister Margaret
Mwanakatwe deny that the government's untrammelled spending
and borrowing have weakened the economy, they are stepping up efforts
to refinance Zambia's Eurobonds, totalling US$3 billion. On 26 July,
Moody's downgraded Zambia's long-term issuer ratings to CAA1 from B3.
Overall, the national debt is approaching US$10 bn., according
to the International Monetary Fund. A bid by the Lungu government to
cut a deal with the IMF fell apart a year ago. And the Fund criticised
the government's borrowing plans, arguing they would exacerbate its
debt problems.
The latest bid to refinance some of the debt follows a move in
mid-June by Mwanakatwe to postpone indefinitely all loans in the
pipeline, and cancel contracted loans amounting to about $5 bn. On 28
July, President Lungu announced after talks with President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan in Lusaka that a Turkish company was interested
in refinancing Zambia's $750 mn. Eurobond which falls due in 2022.
Zambia has two other Eurobonds: one for $1 bn. due in 2024 and
one of $1.25 bn. due in 2027. The cost of servicing those bonds has
risen, along with concerns about the government's lack of transparency
on its total debt commitments. Along with the Turkish offer to
refinance one of the Eurobonds, Mwanakatwe says that Beijing is also
expected to help. A delegation from Lusaka is heading to Beijing next
month.
THE WEEK AHEAD IN BRIEF
ETHIOPIA: Mysterious death of the Millennium
dam's chief engineer clouds Premier Abiy Ahmed's trip
to the US and meetings with diaspora
NIGERIA: Two biggest parties claim victory in
battle for defecting senators and governors ahead of 2019 elections
MALAWI: Citing government corruption,
Vice-President Saulos Chilima is to run against
President Peter wa Mutharika in 2019 polls
