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Kenya

The opposition must solve its alliance arithmetic

Edwin Sifuna, September 2026. Pic: @edwinsifuna
Edwin Sifuna, September 2026. Pic: @edwinsifuna

A unified ticket could win the popular vote, but constitutional thresholds and the country’s first presidential runoff deny anyone a clear run

Kenya’s politics is a permanent campaign. Less than two years after President William Samoei Ruto’s narrow defeat of Raila Amolo Odinga in August 2022, the Gen Z protests redrew the political map, pulling Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) into a de facto unity coalition (AC Vol 66 No 15). That deal was meant to help power Ruto to a second term next August.


Abiy’s gains intensify frontier pressure

ERITEA AND ETHIOPIA: Teetering on the brink of all-our warCopyright © Africa Confidential 2026
ERITEA AND ETHIOPIA: Teetering on the brink of all-our warCopyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Federal advances have sharpened fears of a wider confrontation, as mediators try to separate domestic conflict from cross-border tensions

How far will Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed go in his bid to remake the regional order in the Horn of Africa? When open conflict between the federal...


Tinubu builds the machine

NIGERIA'S STATE GOVERNMENTS (2023-2026): The rise and rise of Tinubu's APC. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
NIGERIA'S STATE GOVERNMENTS (2023-2026): The rise and rise of Tinubu's APC. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

The president’s widening coalition and deep pockets give him an advantage as the opposition tries to turn protests into votes

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu approaches Nigeria’s 16 January presidential election with the strongest political machine, but little popular enthusiasm. Turnout in the elections is likely to be even...


Zuma’s scare clouds the coalition maths

Jacob Zuma
Jacob Zuma

Uncertainty over the 84-year-old’s health adds risk to municipal elections that could reshape governance in the country’s economic heartland

Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK Party) is heading into the 4 November local government elections riding a wave of Zulu nationalism and anger against the African National...


Growth upgrade fails to ease debt squeeze

AFRICA: GDP GROWTH, CURRENCIES RESILIENT, FOR NOW. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
AFRICA: GDP GROWTH, CURRENCIES RESILIENT, FOR NOW. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

The IMF and World Bank lift forecasts, but high US and European yields mean the cost of borrowing will punish African governments

Stronger forecasts and new investment plans at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok on 12–18 October did little to dispel the shadow cast...


Queen Bee Tagwirei takes the hive

Emmerson Mnangagwa swears Kudakwashe Tagwirei in, 12 October 2026. Pic: @edmnangagwa
Emmerson Mnangagwa swears Kudakwashe Tagwirei in, 12 October 2026. Pic: @edmnangagwa

Mnangagwa's favourite financier gets a cabinet seat, a party post and joint-control of the state's investment vehicles in a single week

President Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa’s promotion of Zimbabwe’s richest oligarch, Kudakwashe Tagwirei, to the new post of Minister of Economic Development and Investment on 8 October marginalises the more...


Brussels pesticide compromise leaves African exporters in limbo

Pic: SKT Studio / stock.adobe.com
Pic: SKT Studio / stock.adobe.com

Europe’s pesticide overhaul threatens tougher checks on African produce while easing approvals at home, sharpening divisions between exporters, chemical suppliers and health campaigners

The battle over Europe’s pesticide overhaul highlights competing interests on both sides of the Mediterranean. Scientists and civic activists complain about lobbyists for agrochemical companies and farming organisations...


Miliband hones in on Africa’s debt imbalance

Ed Miliband
Ed Miliband

With aid off the agenda, the government promises a fresh deal on debt relief and development finance as it prepares to take the G20 presidency

Britain’s newish Prime Minister Andy Burnham has made little secret that foreign policy is not his main interest. By appointing Ed Miliband, a former Labour leader, as Foreign...


Abiy turns the screw on the ethno-nationalists

Abiy Ahmed. Pic: PMAbiyAhmedAli
Abiy Ahmed. Pic: PMAbiyAhmedAli

The TPLF’s retreat from Mekelle gives the premier room to squeeze his regional opponents, but their shaky alliance still threatens federal supply lines

For the second time this decade, the leaders of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) appear to have made a strategic error that has forced them to flee...


TPLF loses Mekelle, mountain war begins

ETHIOPIA'S FEDERAL FIGHT BACK: The ENDF and Tigray dissidents seize Mekelle. © africa-confidential.com 2026
ETHIOPIA'S FEDERAL FIGHT BACK: The ENDF and Tigray dissidents seize Mekelle. © africa-confidential.com 2026

Federal forces have seized Tigray’s capital and southern corridor, but TPLF and Eritrean soldiers may turn this advance into a costly highland campaign

The Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) has pushed deep into Tigray, capturing the regional capital, Mekelle, on 4 October after a rapid turnaround on several fronts. The advance...


Commission exposes battle over the law

Mbuyiseli Madlanga. Pic: madlangacommission.co.za
Mbuyiseli Madlanga. Pic: madlangacommission.co.za

Withdrawn prosecutions and disciplinary cases are reshaping policing and anti-corruption, testing Ramaphosa’s commitment to restore credibility

Retired Constitutional Court judge Mbuyiseli Madlanga’s inquiry inquiry into criminal influence over the police service is developing into a broader test of confidence in all the institutions responsible...


Never mind the politics, feel the revenues

TANZANIA: STRONG GROWTH, LOW INFLATION, INCREASING DEBT. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
TANZANIA: STRONG GROWTH, LOW INFLATION, INCREASING DEBT. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Dodoma exudes confidence on economic growth and investment, despite European critics of rights abuses

The fallout from the stolen election of President Samia Suluhu Hassan and the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) last October, and the mass killing of protestors, has neither...


Wicknell Chivayo’s presidential network loses its broker

Wicknell Chivayo. Pic: X
Wicknell Chivayo. Pic: X

Far flung tributes underline the reach of a businessman whose access to African leaders was clearer than the commercial arrangements underpinning it

The death of flamboyant businessman Wicknell Chivayo in a helicopter crash on 30 September has jolted the pan-African networks that he built around money, access and political favour....


Salva Kiir changes voting rules, aiming to keep the power

Pic: UN Photo/Isaac Billy
Pic: UN Photo/Isaac Billy

His electoral amendments remove constitutional and census hurdles but leave the credibility of the vote in dispute

Centralising all power under his office ahead of elections scheduled for 22 December, South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir Mayardit has dissolved the transitional government and legislatures while retaining...