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Vol 58 No 16

Published 4th August 2017


Kenya

Battle of the opinion polls

Two leading voter surveys disagree over the winner of the presidential election and a climate of fear is spreading

More than most electorates, Kenyans take opinion polls seriously. That might have been a bigger problem if there were a consensus among pollsters about the winner. Opinion polls can set dangerous expectations in volatile elections. Earlier this year, most pollsters and independent analysts reckoned that President Uhuru Kenyatta would win easily against challenger Raila Odinga. Most now concede that the race has tightened and some forecast an Odinga win.

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