PREVIEW
The former president senses a political opportunity amid growing alarm about the war in the east
Former President Joseph Kabila has re-emerged from the political wilderness, holding talks with opposition politicians about Congo-Kinshasa's political future and issuing a fierce denunciation of his successor, Félix Tshisekedi’s handling of the conflict in eastern Congo.
In an opinion column published in a South Africa’s Sunday Times on 23 February, Kabila accused Tshisekedi of breaching the constitution – a reference to the president’s plans to change the term limits to allow himself a third term – and dragging the country to the brink of civil war.
He added that any mediation process which did not address the ‘root causes’ of the conflict ‘at the top of which lies the governance of the DRC by its current leadership’, would not deliver a lasting peace.
Though Kabila has been in talks with veteran opposition leaders Moïse Katumbi and Claudel Lubaya, it is not clear who else he has consulted and if any of them are in government.
The seizure of Goma and Bukavu by M23, with the support of the Rwandan army, has left Tshisekedi more vulnerable (AC Vol 66 No 4, As Kinshasa fumes, Kigali plots its next move). Some around the military and government have been warning about the dangers of a mutiny or even a putsch. These concerns seem to have prompted Tshisekedi to talking about appointing a unity government on 22 February. But he is yet to make good on this pledge.
This latest crisis could encourage him to drop the plan to change the presidential term limits, say insiders. But most of all his handling of the military’s successive defeats in the east is costing him political support. His strategy of bringing together foreign mercenaries, Burundians and Southern African Development Community force alongside the Congolese army is regarded as disastrous.
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