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Cast aside by Raila Odinga, his former allies plan to join a rival alliance ahead of next year's elections
The collapse of Kenya's National Super Alliance, the opposition coalition that lost the 2017 election, looks certain after three of the party leaders involved – Amani National Congress's Musalia Mudavadi, Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka and FORD Kenya's Moses Wetangula – set out their intentions to dissolve the party.
Nasa has existed in name only since Raila Odinga was co-opted into President Uhuru Kenyatta's government via the 'handshake' deal in 2018 in which he abandoned the allies that had supported his unsuccessful presidential campaigns in 2012 and 2018 (AC Vol 59 No 6, Raila beats rivals to a new deal). Since then, the other three Nasa leaders have accused Odinga of betrayal and vowed never to endorse him again.
Nasa's demise could benefit Deputy President William Ruto, again the front-runner for next year's polls, by dividing his opponents. While Mudavadi and co have indicated that they want to formalise their One Kenya coalition with Gideon Moi and his Kenya African National Union, there is no sign that this is close to being a viable election-winning vehicle without the support of Kenyatta, Odinga or both.
Neither is there any sign that the Luhya and Kamba communities, which the three Nasa leaders represent, would support a Ruto presidency.
Ruto's opponents worry that the Deputy President could win handily, should the One Kenya group field a third candidate to compete with Odinga (AC Vol 62 No 14, Why the dynasties fear Ruto).
In a letter to Moi and the Nasa principals, Francis Atwoli, Secretary General of the Central Organization of Trade Unions, again urged the principals to unite or face the reality of a Ruto presidency after next August's elections, telling them 'to come together and forget talking about being suspicious of one another, political mistrust, betrayals and false promises'.
'If one of you would have not taken over the political leadership of this country, then the coming five years will witness all of you being fought over fiercely and your influence reduced to nothing,' Atwoli added.
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