PREVIEW
US legislators eyeing extension of trade deal as they fear Russia and China filling the vacuum
Ten weeks after its expiry on 30 September, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is close to being reborn, at least for three years (Dispatches, 6/10/25, AGOA expiry set to become painful reality). Less clear is whether President Donald Trump’s administration will insist on excluding South Africa, with whom it has been waging a sustained diplomatic and economic battle.
The House of Representatives’ Committee on Ways and Means approved the AGOA Extension Act by a vote of 37-3 on 10 December, paving the way for the bill to go before the House, though no timetable has been set for either the House or Senate.
A press statement by the committee described AGOA as a ‘cornerstone’ of US-Africa economic relations and warned that a prolonged lapse would create space for ‘malign actors like China and Russia’.
On 9 December, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that the Trump administration was open to a one-year extension but described South Africa as a ‘unique problem’, suggesting that it could be excluded from AGOA access. During its previous iteration, access to AGOA was denied to a series of countries – Uganda being the most recent – over backsliding on democracy and human rights.
Though a handful of African countries faced a major hit from the loss of AGOA’s tariff- and quota-free trade offer – Kenya’s government has been lobbying hard for an AGOA extension – in the 25 years after its ratification in 2000, AGOA has had an uneven effect Africa-US trade. It was good for Nigeria until the US became energy self-sufficient; and it was good for South African citrus fruits and manufactures – until this year’s diplomatic spat.
In 2024, US AGOA imports stood at just US$8 billion, and remained concentrated in a few countries and industries, with 25% accounted for by crude oil imports, most from Nigeria. South Africa’s car industry and Kenya’s textiles and clothing have been big beneficiaries. Last year, cars and apparel exports to the US were worth $2.4bn and $1.2bn respectively. This year the picture was clouded by the US’s new bilateral tariffs which were imposed across the board before AGOA formally lapsed in September.
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