Jump to navigation

South Africa

ANC Executive mulls Ramaphosa's fate ahead of parliamentary vote

Presidential allies reckon they have the numbers to fight off a rebellion before national conference

Within three days of the parliamentary advisory panel's report on the Phala Phala affair landing on 30 November and concluding there may be grounds for his impeachment, President Cyril Ramaphosa has moved from resignation to fight back mode.

On the legal front, Ramaphosa's lawyers are filing papers with the Constitutional Court today (5 December) calling for judicial review of the panel's conclusions. That could stall the move towards an impeachment vote but it could also mean a forensic examination of the entire affair and some of Ramaphosa's business dealings.

Should the Constitutional Court take up the case, that would  work in Ramaphosa's favour. It would give Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula, parliamentary speaker and Ramaphosa ally, an argument to delay the 6 December debate on his impeachment until after the Constitutional Court rules. That ruling is likely to be after the African National Congress's national conference from 16-20 December (AC Vol 63 No 24, A December surprise threatens Ramaphosa's second term).

That could keep Ramaphosa in the running in the leadership stakes in elections at the conference to secure another term as ANC President. It would also complicate the race for his main rivals ANC Treasurer General Paul Mashatile and former Health Minister Zweli Mkhize.

Much will hang on what happens at the party's National Executive Meeting today (5 December). The 80-member committee could decide to recall Ramaphosa while the legal processes play out, leaving Deputy President David 'DD' Mabuza as a stand-in until the national conference. That would have the virtue of consistency with the 'step-aside' rule to which the party agreed last year.

Many ANC supporters view that as the worst of all possible worlds and destabilising the leadership of the party further. Added to that, Mabuza isn't a very popular figure in the party as last month's branch nominations showed.

The longer Ramaphosa can drag out the process, the more he can use his incumbency to bolster his position within the party. ANC delegates will also consider electoral calculations – that Ramaphosa remains more popular than his party – and might serve their interests best if they keep him in place until the 2024 elections.

But that looks an age away. This week he will be fighting for his survival day by day.



Related Articles

Balancing the good cop with the bad

The Reserve Bank is easing the pressure on KPMG. It worries about scaring investors while it tries to make companies more accountable

The government is in disarray over how to handle the deepening crisis unleashed by the auditing firm KPMG’s involvement in the affairs of the Guptas and the 'state...


Facts on a fax

Pressure is mounting on Deputy President Jacob Zuma following claims by state prosecutors on 19 October that he received a 500,000 rand (US$79,000) bribe from France's Thomson-CSF.


What's left of the left?

An important battle looms over policy and tactics

After two and half years of African National Congress rule, the political forces of the left are in disarray. In the face of the government' s determination to...


Not yet Team Ramaphosa

The new cabinet line-up shows signs of a fraught balancing of ANC factional interests

It may be Cyril Ramaphosa's first cabinet but it was not all of his making. That much was evident from the repeated delays in the announcement from the...