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Analysis

 

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Displaying 21-30 out of 37 results.

Southern leaders compete for a new state

There are fears that the thrice-delayed national elections, now due on 8 April, could trigger an escalation of fighting in Darfur and the South, given the probability that few will accept the results as free and fair. The Khartoum regime has failed to implement most of the key democratic reforms agreed under the 2005 peace deal. The 2008 census and the constituency boundaries lacked credibility and the Islamist government has done nothing to promote an independent judiciary or independent electoral administration.

referendumA new wave of violence and fraudulent elections could block any chance of progress on Darfur and undermine the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) led by Salva Kiir...


Museveni - from grand reformer to simply surviving

With his eyes on another five-year presidential term in 2011, President Yoweri Museveni has shaken up his cabinet, touted Uganda's future as an oil exporter and pressed for a military resolution to the conflict with the LRA. The only thing that could stop him from extending his 23 years of rule is infighting between the factions of the ruling National Resistance Movement. Museveni's long-term allies benefit from his grip on power, but a new generation in the ruling party wants changes to policies and leadership.

President Yoweri Museveni has two main power centres. Firstly, the National Resistance Movement which still enjoys popular support across Uganda, especially in the vote-rich rural ...


More unga than chungwa

A year after the flawed elections, much of the fire has gone out of the once radical opposition Orange Democratic Movement. Odinga, the firebrand ODM leader, held a meeting for his constituents in Nairobi’s Kibera’s slum to thank them for voting for him. He yelled the rallying cry ‘ODM!’, expecting the crowd to respond as it used to ‘Chungwa!’ (Orange!), the party colour and symbol, but they roared back ‘Unga!’, the maize flour that makes up the staple diet of ugali.

Politics is now taking second place to overwhelming concerns about the economy. Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement had promised lower rents and food prices, b...


The man who says no

Rebel leader Laurent Nkunda likes to compare his relentless campaign against the Kinshasa government with the military resistance of General Charles de Gaulle, 'the man who said no'. Taking the parallels further, Nkunda has announced the formation of a provisional government in eastern Congo and threatens to march on the Kabila government. Without substantial back-up for the UN peacekeepers and a turnaround by the government forces, Nkunda's wild ambitions will face few obstacles.

The strategic blunders of both the Kinshasa government and the Kivu rebels leave Congo's government facing military defeat, the rebels facing political isolation and the people of ...


A hard act to follow

The death of Zambia’s president means that, not even two years since the last polls, there will be a presidential election before the end of the year. This has revealed deep splits in the governing party and disorganisation in the opposition. At stake is Levy Mwanawasa’s legacy of economic growth, fighting corruption and speaking out on regional issues.

After his death last month, President Levy Patrick Mwanawasa continued to dominate Zambian politics as his coffin toured the country for a week. The extended countrywide funeral pr...


Abyei - a border that shapes the future

As the International Criminal Court laid charges of genocide against President Omer el Beshir on 14 July, Africa Confidential obtained a United Nations' internal report that blames the Khartoum regime for much of the death and destruction in Abyei in May. The report criticises the UN's shortcomings in Sudan but also notes that government bomber aircraft targeted aid headquarters and that local people regard goverment strategy as ethnic cleansing.

The immediate trigger for the crisis over Abyei is Khartoum's refusal to accept a ruling made by the Abyei Boundaries Commission (ABC) under the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement ...


One party rule

The ruling party looks set to win again at the parliamentary elections which are due to be held in September. Strikingly, nearly one in five Angolans belongs to the governing party, the MPLA. Nevertheless, voters will expect it to explain why the general public has not benefited from the vast wealth that is arriving as Angola takes over from Nigeria as Africa's leading oil producer.

In power since 1992, the Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola is at least sure of its ability to deliver peaceful polls. Even the main opposition party (the MPLA...


It's the price that counts

It is easy to find culprits for the food crisis in Africa, from the West's push for biofuels to China's newly well-fed middle class. The fact is that food supplies are short and prices therefore high in the short term - and probably in the long term too.

The 75% increase in food prices reported by the World Bank is pushing down nutrition standards in poor countries and wreaking havoc across developing economies. The big question i...


The centre versus the rest

El Sadig el Sideeg el Mahdi launched his bid to return to power, only to be shouted down by hundreds of Sudanese who had flocked to listen

El Sadig's view that the National Congress regime (NC, as the NIF has rebranded itself) is afraid of violence spreading looks like wishful thinking. As El Sadig has been meeting P...


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