Despite withdrawing some troops from Ethiopia Issayas has no interest in helping a political resolution between the TPLF and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government...

Kenya's President William Ruto who has assiduously cultivated relations with Washington may be a waverer but Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is likely to go in recognition of Moscow's arms supplies during Addis Ababa's war against Tigray...

Regionally the offensive has warmed Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to Hassan Sheikh and the marriage of the former head of the Mogadishu police Sadeeq Joon to the daughter of President of Ismail Omar Guelleh of Djibouti has done him no harm...

Tigray government President Debretsion Gebremichael last month emphasised the need for unity but the TPLF faces internal opposition from those favouring independence for Tigray and others prepared to cooperate with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in an interim administration (AC Vol 63 No 22 Addis Ababa and Tigray sign an uneasy truce)...

They are wary of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's mixed messages...

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is apparently worried by an influx of Al Shabaab fighters into Oromia and hopes to weaken them by creating a buffer zone between Somalia and Oromia controlled by local militias and Ethiopian federal troops...

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Issayas Afewerki put at least half a million soldiers – including fighters of the Amhara Special Forces militia (controlled by regional rather than federal authorities) – into the field...

How Issayas's strategy thrives in a divided Ethiopia Eritrean President Issayas Afewerki has different and wider aims than those of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed not least his long-held belief that Eritrea needs a weak or even divided Ethiopia as a neighbour (AC Vol 63 No 12 Abiy risks Amhara backlash)...

More fighting is unlikely to break this siege unless Tigray's leaders can put Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in an even weaker position than when they routed federal forces on their march towards Addis late last year...