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Published 24th October 2025

Vol 66 No 21


Kenya

After Odinga, opposition politicians jostle for position

Bidding farewell to Raila Odinga, Bondo, 19 October 2025. Pic: @edwinsifuna

A generational battle to decide who succeeds the veteran leader may also seal the fate of President William Ruto’s government

Until the death of Raila Amolo Odinga from a heart attack on 15 October, President William Samoei Ruto’s path to re-election in August 2027 had seemed clear: having turned his back on the central Mount Kenya region, he would need Odinga to deliver his Western and Coastal support bases under a pact offering Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) a string of key ministries and perhaps the deputy presidency.

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Crisis in the capital

Johnson Sakaja. Pic: @SakajaJohnson

Unable to keep the streets clean, Johnson Sakaja is the latest victim of the Nairobi governor curse

In a country where the power of incumbency is so strong, it is a striking anomaly that no Nairobi governor has secured a second term since devolution became...


Gen Z redraws the power map

Colonel Michael Randrianirina is sworn in.
Colonel Michael Randrianirina is sworn in.

Mass demonstrations prompted President Andry Rajoelina’s removal from power. Now the military is back in the driving seat

It was the military’s backing for the Gen Z protests against President Andry Rajoelina that forced him to flee aboard a French military jet on 12 October. At...



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THE INSIDE VIEW

Some rights campaigners argue that now most western governments, led by the United States, have dropped their strictures on corruption and stolen elections, credit rating agencies could offer the most effective constraint. That hopeful hypothesis hasn’t played out in practice so far. But there may be other limits on authoritarian regimes.

Sudan under General Omer Ahmed Hassan el Beshir never qualified for a credit rating but was widely regarded as one of the most brutal in the world. A...

Some rights campaigners argue that now most western governments, led by the United States, have dropped their strictures on corruption and stolen elections, credit rating agencies could offer the most effective constraint. That hopeful hypothesis hasn’t played out in practice so far. But there may be other limits on authoritarian regimes.

Sudan under General Omer Ahmed Hassan el Beshir never qualified for a credit rating but was widely regarded as one of the most brutal in the world. And yet, thanks to serial financing deals with leading international banks and oil companies, it was able to pay for the systematic repression of opposition, killing over 300,000 people in Darfur.

Belatedly, the bill for that has landed with the banks. France’s BNP Paribas has been found guilty of complicity in genocidal actions by breaching sanctions to sell financial services to then President Beshir. BNP’s shares have tumbled by 10% since a US jury awarded US$20.75 million to three Sudanese plaintiffs, a move that could lead to a class-action lawsuit of 23,000 Sudanese in the US that lawyers say could ‘seek billions more in recovery’. BNP says it will appeal, describing the court ruling, which relates to actions by Beshir’s regime a decade ago, as ‘clearly wrong’.

Justice delayed is better than justice denied. Credit Suisse was fined for its role in Mozambique’s ‘hidden loans’ scandal almost a decade after the event and after billions of dollars had left Maputo’s coffers.

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Opposition colossus Odinga dies, leaving succession crisis

Millions mourn a man who lost five presidential elections but changed the country, campaigning for political freedoms and constitutional reform

Raila Amolo Odinga, whose activism helped launch multi-party politics in Kenya and reformed the constitution after winning a national referendum, died on 15 October following a heart attack...


Jihadists tighten their stranglehold

With critical gold mines in the Kayes region already under threat, the militants are now targeting critical commercial axes

After assaulting the main western trade corridor to Bamako from Dakar last month, jihadist fighters have now extended their campaign to the key southern artery from Abidjan as...


To the victor the spoiled ballot

Issa Tchiroma Bakary has declared himself the presidential election winner but few doubt that Paul Biya will ultimately prevail through electoral fraud

Citizens of Cameroon's main conurbations are bracing themselves as unrest spreads in the wake of the efforts by President Paul Biya and his ruling Rassemblement Démocratique du Peuple...


The Tinubu-Shell trade-off behind a $7.5 billion investment

UN experts warn that international oil companies’ opaque sales to local consortia flout environmental and human rights laws

The tortuous bargaining between international oil companies – Shell, TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil – and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s government over new investments has hit a succession of legal...


Terror sets the tone for polling day

Security men guided by the President’s son are said to be behind the abductions and killings creating a climate of fear for the 29 October elections

President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s calm, maternal image conceals a streak of ruthless determination to root out all political opposition to ensure her re-election, no matter what the human...



Pointers

Coup plot or not

Mobile phones started buzzing on 17 October about a thwarted coup plot, fired up by a story on Sahara Reporters on the arrest of 16 officers ‘over issues...