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Published 25th July 2025

Vol 66 No 15

Kenya

Ruto shifts from populism to authoritarianism

William Ruto, President of Kenya, at the U.S. Capitol
William Ruto, President of Kenya, at the U.S. Capitol. Credit: SOPA Images Limited/Alamy Live News

The president’s pledge to end elite capture and patronage has been dropped for the ethnic identity politics which dominated the old one-party state

President William Ruto’s falling out with his core Mount Kenya constituency – followed by the impeachment of his former deputy, Rigathi Gachagua – has become the defining crisis of his presidency. With two years until the August 2027 elections, his legitimacy rests on a fragile alliance with his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) rival, Raila Odinga. Ruto now appears intent on turning the Mount Kenya fallout into a wedge issue and central plank of his re-election campaign. Many fear that, 20 years after the calamitous 2007 polls, 2027 could mark another Kenyan annus horribilis.

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Gen Z protestors vie with old politics

Police patrol the streets ahead of Saba Saba demonstrations in Nakuru
Police patrol the streets ahead of Saba Saba demonstrations in Nakuru. Credit: SOPA Images Limited/Alamy Live News

Former Chief Justice Maraga and veteran politician Musyoka are top contenders to lead the campaign against beleaguered President Ruto

With personal ratings stuck between 10 and 15%, few dispute that President William Ruto is toxically unpopular – especially among young Kenyans. Yet most expect him to be...

Buhari’s legacy and opposition alliance slow Tinubu’s bandwagon

NIGERIA’S FEDERATION: How the 36 state governments could shape the 2027 elections
NIGERIA’S FEDERATION: How the 36 state governments could shape the 2027 elections. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar sense a new chance but the odds are still stacked against them

Strategists in the ruling All Progressives Congress and sundry opposition parties are scurrying to adapt to the changing political conditions after the demise of Muhammadu Buhari at 82...

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THE INSIDE VIEW

Portugal’s decision to support Morocco’s autonomy plan for the disputed territory of Western Sahara sees Lisbon joins a lengthening list led by the United States, France, Spain and Britain as well as several African countries, including Ghana and Kenya.

Foreign Minister Paulo Rangel described Morocco’s plan as a ‘serious and credible basis’ for Western Sahara’s future, following a meeting with Nasser Bourita in Rabat, echoing the message of Fran...

Portugal’s decision to support Morocco’s autonomy plan for the disputed territory of Western Sahara sees Lisbon joins a lengthening list led by the United States, France, Spain and Britain as well as several African countries, including Ghana and Kenya.

Foreign Minister Paulo Rangel described Morocco’s plan as a ‘serious and credible basis’ for Western Sahara’s future, following a meeting with Nasser Bourita in Rabat, echoing the message of France and Spain. Publicly, Germany and the European Commission have so far maintained their neutrality. In private, the Commission views Morocco as its most reliable partner in North Africa and has repeatedly flouted European Court of Justice rulings that its trade deals with Morocco must not encompass Western Sahara.

Morocco’s diplomatic ascendancy is as much a reverse for Algeria as the Polisario Front. As well as strengthening its trade and diplomatic links with Europe and negotiating a formal pact with the EU on migration, Morocco has wooed the Sahelian military juntas on its southern border in recent months. Relations between Algiers and Mali cooled after the junta in Bamako unilaterally abrogated the Algiers agreement with the Tuareg. Diplomatic relations between Brussels and Algiers are close to zero. Algeria is the only country in the region with which the EU does not have a migration cooperation arrangement – and doesn’t seem to want one.

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High hopes, little change

After yet another UN summit, African governments see sparse progress on debt relief or global financial reform

The familiar sound of empty promises rang around Seville at the close of the latest UN summit on international financial reforms. Few delegates from developing nations trusted commitments...

Unity government shaken as police chief blows the whistle

After explosive claims of cartel-backed infiltration, Ramaphosa suspended key officials and launched a judicial inquiry but risks losing control of the coalition

On 6 July, KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) police commissioner Lieutenant-General Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi accused Police Minister Senzo Mchunu and Deputy National Police Commissioner Shadrack Sibiya of colluding with criminal elements to...

Militias agree peace but risks stay high

A historic deal to agree peace between Bangui and all the rebel groups is announced, but at what cost and for how long?

On 4 July, Chad announced that a peace agreement had been reached between the Central African Republic government and the two main armed groups, which are mostly made...

President’s oil dream is in foreign hands

Museveni’s beloved pipeline and refinery project rides on uncertain finance from UAE and questions about China’s priorities

Uganda’s planned oil refinery at Hoima hinges its joint venture partner Alpha MBM Investments, a little-known United Arab Emirates company chaired by a minor member of the Dubai...

Former enemies unite to take on Abiy Ahmed

Eritrea and the ruling party in Tigray forge an unlikely alliance against Addis Ababa

Never short of self-belief, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed faces the most serious challenge yet to his balancing of regional and national interests – Eritrean and Tigrayan leaders,...

Pointers

Democracy, deferred

Gambia has failed again to enact a new constitution after parliament rejected a draft bill on 7 July – a move that clears the way for President Adama...

News maker: Buhari's contested legacy

From the tens of thousands of people who trekked to pay homage to the late military leader turned elected president to the digital warriors who fought over his...

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