Few of the delegates arriving in Belém for the opening of the UN COP30 climate summit on 10 November expected a breakthrough on finance. Funding for global climate adaptation is running at less than 10% of the US$300 billion a year promised by wealthy countries by 2035, and little more than 2% of the $1.3 trillion demanded by developing states. But African diplomats who put ‘green growth’ at the centre of their pitch in Brazil expected to mobilise more capital.

Instead, the divisions between wealthy and developing countries have widened. Many African states support the Open Coalition on Compliance Carbon Markets drawn up by the hosts Brazil, which aim to develop shared principles for carbon pricing. But the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism has been one of the most divisive topics. South Africa and Mozambique complain that CBAM – a levy on imports of products such as steel, aluminium and cement linked – is a unilateral measure restricting trade and hurting developing countries. The EU retorts that CBAM is part of its push towards ‘net zero’ emissions rather than a trade measure. Fuelling the divide is the fact that the EU wants the revenues from CBAM, forecast at around €9bn a year, to finance its budget. The Brazilian government has proposed that the cash be used to contribute to the climate finance that European and other wealthy states are being so slow to provide.