NIGERIA Atiku, Buhari and Ribadu - the great northern hopes 3rd December 2010 Image courtesy of Panos Pictures View site Northern politicians have regrouped and are making a determined bid for the presidency in next year's election The postponement of the presidential election until 9 April 2011 means another four months of intensive party politicking and the shelving of plans to reform the oil, gas and electricity sectors. Strategists around President Goodluck Jonathan want time for him to win over his divided party and the country at large. Delays also give northern Nigeria's political clans time to sharpen strategies and renegotiate their alliances with the south. Policy failures are undermining President Jonathan, who presented himself as the leader who would clean up the oil business and fix the power industry. The amnesty that he and his late predecessor, Umaru Musa Yar'Adua, secured in the Niger Delta is coming apart; oil production and state revenues are falling (AC Vol 51 Nos 21 & 23).
NIGERIA All the President's militias 3rd December 2010 Image courtesy of Panos Pictures View site Jonathan must win the Delta vote and is mustering the violent gangs to ensure his victory The fierce race for the presidency and National Assembly in next year's elections is worsening the violence in the Niger Delta and undermining last year's amnesty deal. Within th...
KENYA Ruto takes on the courts 3rd December 2010 Image courtesy of Panos Pictures View site Sacked from the cabinet and accused of involvement in the 2007 election violence, William Ruto comes out fighting The point of William Ruto's voluntary mission to the Hague to meet investigators at the International Criminal Court on 4-6 November became clear when he returned to Nairobi. Thro...
The drama of Côte d’Ivoire’s first elections since the 2002 civil war has quickly morphed into a crisis after incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo’s Front Populaire Ivoirien refused to accept the results tabulated by the Commission Electorale Indépendante. Three days before the second round of the presidential election on 28 November, Gbagbo and his rival, Alassane Dramane Ouattara, took part in a televised debate which suggested the two leaders were ready to move beyond sectional... The drama of Côte d’Ivoire’s first elections since the 2002 civil war has quickly morphed into a crisis after incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo’s Front Populaire Ivoirien refused to accept the results tabulated by the Commission Electorale Indépendante. Three days before the second round of the presidential election on 28 November, Gbagbo and his rival, Alassane Dramane Ouattara, took part in a televised debate which suggested the two leaders were ready to move beyond sectional rivalries to resuscitate the economy. That spirit of constructive leadership is essential if the country is not to slip into chaos again. As in the aftermath of the 2007 Kenyan elections, Ivorians expect the arrival of the diplomatic heavy squad to concoct a face-saving deal. The prospects are not good: Gbagbo and the FPI partisans especially are highly resistant to foreign mediators, while Ouattara, a former IMF Deputy Managing Director, is seen as the French candidate. The stage is set for a lengthy and dangerous stand-off. Election officials describe the narrow defeat of Gbagbo in the run-off as the worst kept secret in Côte d’Ivoire. Although oppositionists and independents have majority control of the Electoral Commission, Gbagbo’s appointees dominate the Constitutional Court, which must approve the results. Both leaders – Gbagbo, an academic historian, and Ouattara, a development economist – know the risks of another political explosion but outside intervention will be needed to stop it. Read more
GAMBIAIRAN Iranian guns and a king in Banjul 3rd December 2010 As he plans to install himself as monarch, President Jammeh has cut ties with Tehran over a mysterious arms shipment None of the official explanations - from either Tehran or Banjul - of why Iran was sending arms to Gambia via Nigeria make any sense. Gambia's President Yahya Jammeh, who has run a...
CONGO-KINSHASA The case against Kabila's army 3rd December 2010 A new report by United Nations experts implicates Congo’s soldiers in murderous criminality, leaving Kinshasa some tough choices The findings by a United Nations' investigation that extensive criminal networks inside Congo's army are raping and killing people and stealing minerals challenge President Josep...
EGYPT Mubarak's last stand 3rd December 2010 After fixing the legislative elections, the NDP prepares for a much tougher fight in next year’s presidential polls After its claimed landslide victory in the 28 November parliamentary elections, the National Democratic Party's local and international credibility has hit an all time low. The NDP...
LIBYA Oil, money and infighting 3rd December 2010 As Tripoli hosted a summit for Africa and Europe, the Libyan leader berated his European counterparts for lack of attention to Africa, although his own commitment to his country's ...
CONGO-KINSHASA Will the UN bail out of Congo? 3rd December 2010 Another month, another United Nations' report on Congo-Kinshasa. Yet do these reports, or indeed the UN in general, help improve conditions in Congo? At around 19,000 strong, the...
EGYPT The thwarted contenders 3rd December 2010 Muslim Brotherhood (MB, El Akhwan el Muslimoon): The MB remains the main opposition party despite continual crackdowns and waves of arrests by the intelligence services. It also su...
LIBYA Gadaffi's Jacob and Esau 3rd December 2010 With its control of state revenue - amounting to over US$400 billion – for the past four decades, the Gadaffi family has become a sprawling, opaque and sometimes quarrelsome busine...
BURKINA FASO Modesty Blaise 3rd December 2010 Apathy and a chronically low turn out meant that President Compaoré could have won comfortably without bothering to steal votes Of all West Africa's electoral battles, President Blaise Compaoré's fight for re-election after 23 years in power was the least in doubt. The 21 November poll saw him secu...
SUDAN Abyei's protocol problems 3rd December 2010 Abyei is still waiting, while Southerners register for their own referendum The National Congress Party (NCP) carried its brinkmanship beyond the 30 November deadline set by Abyei's Dinka Ngok leaders – and the requisite Referendum Commission had still n...
ANGOLAUNITED STATES Closing the laundries 3rd December 2010 Angola is considering retaliating against United States' companies and the US Embassy in Luanda over the Bank of America's closure of its Washington Embassy accounts, we hear. It...
MADAGASCAR The next revolt 3rd December 2010 The curious rebellion on 17 November by a score of soldiers was defused when the rebels, who had been surrounded, surrendered peacefully. No military units had joined them; eleven ...
SOUTH AFRICA Why Nyanda had to go 3rd December 2010 When President Jacob Zuma reshuffled his cabinet last month, he fired the powerful Communications Minister, General Siphiwe Nyanda. We can reveal that Nyanda fell out of favour f...
ZIMBABWE Cranswick and Marange 3rd December 2010 A key player in the Marange diamond fields dispute, businessman Andrew Cranswick, has been declared bankrupt in Australia after failing to pay a tax demand of Aus$1.1 million (US...
