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Published 11th July 2025

Vol 66 No 14

Rwanda

Trump’s peace deal hinges on minerals, militias – and megawatts

CONGO-KINSHASA MINERAL-SECURITY DEAL: Hope at Ruzizi hydro, chaos at Rubaya coltan mine. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
CONGO-KINSHASA MINERAL-SECURITY DEAL: Hope at Ruzizi hydro, chaos at Rubaya coltan mine. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

A White House-brokered agreement promises regional calm and economic integration, but success depends on dislodging rebels and securing mining rights

Speaking at the White House on 27 June, during the signing of a new peace agreement by the Rwandan and Congolese foreign ministers, President Donald Trump declared that no previous United States president had attempted to broker peace between Rwanda and Congo-Kinshasa – and that none could have succeeded as he had. Vice-President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US Africa Envoy Massad Boulos all echoed the sentiment.

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Tagwirei riles ruling party rivals

Kudakwashe Tagwirei. Pic: @ZANUPF_Official

As Harare’s top oligarch edges into politics, senior ZANU-PF cadres push back – and opposition chief Chamisa prepares a comeback

The president’s favourite oligarch, Kudakwashe Tagwirei, is rapidly transitioning from shadowy financier to top public figure – usually wearing the signature striped scarf in national colours introduced by...

How Turkana’s promises of oil riches became a pipe dream

Tullow Oil Kenya August 2019. Pic: @TullowOilplc
Tullow Oil Kenya August 2019. Pic: @TullowOilplc

The oil companies arrived with pledges of roads, schools and clean water. Instead there has been negligible production but lots of environmental damage

More than 15 years have passed since British-based Tullow Oil came to the remote plains of northern Kenya, raising expectations of transformation. Once oil was confirmed, it was...

BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

Was the invitation from United States President Donald Trump to the leaders of Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania and Senegal to lunch at the White House on 9 July as random as many diplomats thought? None of them would generate headlines. But the five match the Trump administration’s priorities on Africa: minerals, security and migration control. Their invitation to Washington coincided with pushback by bigger countries such as Nigeria and South Africa against Trump’s poli...

Was the invitation from United States President Donald Trump to the leaders of Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania and Senegal to lunch at the White House on 9 July as random as many diplomats thought? None of them would generate headlines. But the five match the Trump administration’s priorities on Africa: minerals, security and migration control. Their invitation to Washington coincided with pushback by bigger countries such as Nigeria and South Africa against Trump’s policies on visas and tariffs. Speculation pushed by Trump associates in Washington that Mauritania’s President Mohamed Ould Cheikh el Ghazouani would be meeting Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the first stage in a normalisation deal turned out to be overblown.

Migration is a key issue in US politics. The Trump administration is following the EU’s ‘cash for migrant control’ deal with Mauritania. The EU is talking with Senegal on a similar arrangement. Some 20,000 people left Mauritania for the US between 2023 and 2025. The US also wants partners to host military bases to replace its hub at Agadez in Niger.

Senegal, Mauritania and Gabon are rich in gold, oil, manganese, gas, wood and zircon. The White House says that the gathering represents an ‘incredible’ commercial opportunity. With a series of US-Africa summits in the diary for the second half of 2025, such mini-summits may be a sign of things to come.

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The deadly stalemate deepens

As both sides escalate drone warfare backed by foreign patrons, civilians are trapped in a cycle of violence, revenge and economic devastation

The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) have clawed back large tracts of land in the heart of the country forcing the Rapid Support Forces to refocus on western Sudan...

Would-be mediators mull a new initiative

US officials have sounded out the combatants and their backers over a new peace plan – but nobody is jumping into fresh talks

A flurry of peace initiatives put to the warring factions in Sudan and their main sponsors is yet to move the needle. But it may prompt would-be mediators...

Splits appear in Biya regime’s façade

Once-stalwart loyalists are breaking with the regime just as opposition strength swells ahead of the October elections. The President’s team is nervous

The previously confident guardians of Paul Biya’s presidency are looking concerned as they absorb the impact of the defection of two previously dependable, even crucial, allies – Bello...

Politicians seek a way out of the impasse

With Al Shabaab holding its own, the viability of next year’s elections diminishing, and donors in dismay, the constitution has moved centre stage

Mogadishu’s politicians are ending a period of bitter dispute and beginning to talk to each other as they all conclude that the conditions are not yet right for...

Pointers

Putschist faces his own mutiny

Nigériens are two weeks away from the second anniversary of the putsch that deposed President Mohamed Bazoum, breaking military partnerships with France, the United States and the European...

Oil report blames officials

A report by Gambia’s lawmakers has blamed three state officials for interfering with a police investigation into the importation and sale of 36,000 tonnes of sanctioned Russian diesel...

Death toll mounts after protests

With police barricading every available route into Nairobi’s central business district and effectively suspending business activity across the country, the hotspots of protests marking the 35th anniversary of...

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