‘Mission accomplished. We’re going home’ was the statement on the Wagner Group’s social media platforms in early June, signalling its departure from Mali. In truth, a rebranding exercise is taking place. Most Wagner fighters in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger will be staying put, but now as members of the Africa Corps.

Formed after the death of Wagner’s leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in 2023, Africa Corps is directly controlled by the Russian state. A report by American investigation?group, The Sentry, published on 27 August, suggests that Wagner’s operations in Mali have been a ‘multi-layered catastrophe’ for civilians and military leaders alike, and that ‘heavy-handed and poorly informed counter-terrorism operations have strengthened alliances among armed groups challenging the state’.

Wagner forces have failed to take control in northern and central Mali, where armed terrorist and separatist groups remain most active. The result has been battlefield losses for Wagner and rising civilian casualties. Africa Corps’ recruitment efforts have intensified since February, offering hefty bonuses to new recruits. That suggests that Russia aims to expand its footprint – though its hopes of securing access to mineral resources have largely been unrealised as the juntas seek to retain control. Western powers have lamented Russia’s influence but accepted the expulsion of their own troops without offering any credible alternative.