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Published 12th September 2025

Vol 66 No 18


Tokyo scores on policy but loses on scale

THE NACALA CORRIDOR: From the Indian Ocean to the Copperbelt. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
THE NACALA CORRIDOR: From the Indian Ocean to the Copperbelt. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Summit pledges on cutting the cost of capital, boosting fair trade and investment were popular, but delegates want quantity as well as quality

One of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s last diplomatic forays before his resignation on 7 September was his hosting of the Tokyo International Conference on Africa Development (TICAD 9) in Yokohama from 20-22 August. In Ishiba’s own lights, the TICAD summit could be marked as a success, against a harsh geopolitical backdrop, with 33 African heads of government or state participating and senior representatives from 49 states attending.

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THE INSIDE VIEW

The inauguration of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Africa’s largest hydro-electric dam, is a moment of truth for Ethiopia’s national identity. Expected to generate 6,000MW of electricity when it reaches full capacity, it also threatens to overhaul the political dynamics of the region, with Ethiopia and its Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed the big winners.

Abiy claims the GERD is of existential importance to Ethiopia, and that it ‘means the end of Ethiopia’s geop...

The inauguration of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Africa’s largest hydro-electric dam, is a moment of truth for Ethiopia’s national identity. Expected to generate 6,000MW of electricity when it reaches full capacity, it also threatens to overhaul the political dynamics of the region, with Ethiopia and its Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed the big winners.

Abiy claims the GERD is of existential importance to Ethiopia, and that it ‘means the end of Ethiopia’s geopolitical insignificance.’ There are eerie parallels with Egyptian leader Gamel Nasser’s insistence on building the Aswan in the teeth of opposition from regional and western states. And now Egypt, along with Sudan, is the leading opponent of Abiy’s dam, arguing it disrupts water from the Nile River. Egypt, which supported the TPLF in its war with Abiy’s federal government, has also offered backing to Somalia, another rival to Ethiopia.

For many, GERD is key project to power. At the Africa Climate Summit in Addis Ababa on 8-10 September, the EU announced that it will pay $156m into a grid-expansion project that would allow Ethiopia to export electricity to its neighbours, including Somalia, Uganda and Kenya, whose President William Ruto has already offered to buy power generated by the dam. Ruto and Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud attended the dam inauguration in person; the latter as a conciliatory gesture.

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Salva and Riek risk a return to war

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Lazarus Chakwera fights to survive

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Malawians go to the polls on 16 September in an election that could make President Lazarus Chakwera the third one-term president in the past 11 years. All the...



Pointers

Relocation and dislocation

The relocation of several United Nations agencies – including UN Women, the UN Children’s Fund and the UN Population Fund – to Nairobi, as part of the UN80...


Talon to step aside

Finance minister Romuald Wadagni has been named joint presidential candidate of the governing l’Union progressiste pour le renouveau (UPR) and Bloc Républicain (BR) for April 2026 – confirming...