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Published 21st October 2016

Vol 57 No 21


Mozambique

Good gas and bad governance

Map Copyright © Africa Confidential 2016
Map Copyright © Africa Confidential 2016

Progress is being made towards the much-hyped gas production but it's a long and twisting road towards tangible benefits 

The massive economic growth rate of 24% which the International Monetary Fund predicted is no more. That was the Fund's figure for 2021, when gas production had been expected to begin. However, on 4 October, after its recent mission to Maputo, it revised that figure down to just 6.8%.

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Dar wins from regional shift

Deciding on the main pipeline route was tough enough, but major problems for export and production remain

The April agreement between Uganda and Tanzania to run a crude oil export pipeline through Tanzania rather than Kenya dramatically shifted the geometry of East African oil. Yet the...


Killings threaten shaky peace

Violence in Bangui and among refugees has many worried. The coming donor conference may be premature 

About 30 people were killed in and around a refugee camp in Kaga Bandoro, 320 kilometres north of Bangui, according to news agencies, as deteriorating security threatens to build i...



BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

With average economic growth rates in African economies sinking to around 1.6% next year and conflict worsening, European Union officials are holding a summit on migration in Brussels on 20 October (see Pointer, Shifting borders south).

They want African governments to tighten border controls. One proposal suggests countries that cooperate with EU border restrictions and accept returned migrants would win higher levels of development aid and market access. Those which don’t wo...

With average economic growth rates in African economies sinking to around 1.6% next year and conflict worsening, European Union officials are holding a summit on migration in Brussels on 20 October (see Pointer, Shifting borders south).

They want African governments to tighten border controls. One proposal suggests countries that cooperate with EU border restrictions and accept returned migrants would win higher levels of development aid and market access. Those which don’t would face economic penalties. The drafters of that policy will struggle to explain how further impoverishing countries with high levels of migration is going to improve regional stability.

The first deal, the Rabat Process in 2006, aimed to staunch the flow of West African migrants through Morocco en route to southern Europe. A much more-criticised deal known as the Khartoum Process was struck between the EU and the governments of the Horn of Africa in 2014. Human rights campaigners say that returning migrants to such countries especially to Sudan, could break EU human rights law.

On 10 October, German Chancellor Angela Merkel arrived in Addis Ababa to meet Ethiopia's Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn. The previous day, Hailemariam had announced a state of emergency following political clashes in Oromia in which more than 500 people died. Days earlier, the Ethiopian government had dropped its earlier refusal to accept the return of its nationals deported from Europe.

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Stalwarts push for Zuma's exit

As more details emerge about his business allies, the President's position in the cabinet and party is weakening

This month, the fight between President Jacob Zuma and his diminishing band of defenders on the one hand and on the other, the gutsy former Public Protector Thulisile Madonsela and...


Premier Benkirane is back

The Islamist PJD won the most votes in this month's elections but it faces some hard bargaining to form another coalition

It should have been a dramatic general election on 7 October, pitting the Islamist-led government's record of social conservatism and economic stagnation against a Westernised libe...


Diversification or bust

The Bretton Woods Institutions warn that it's no good waiting for another commodity boom

Governments and companies in Africa should not expect an early recovery of their commodity exports to boost flagging trade, says Albert Zeufack, the World Bank's Chief Economist fo...


Kabila slides into a legitimacy crisis

After the Kinshasa clashes, opposition is mounting – at home and abroad – to the President's plans to extend his time in power

Violent clashes in Kinshasa between protestors and police last month show how the row over President Joseph Kabila's plans to delay elections could trigger a crisis across the coun...


Ruling party ploughs on

No compromise with the wave of protest is in view. The elite reckons it can weather the storm

The select of Ethiopia's elites, including opposition leaders, crowded into the Sheraton Addis Hotel on 15 October to discuss the country's fragile ethnic federation and stuttering...



Pointers

Shifting borders south

The European Union is set to intensify its migration control regime at a summit of EU leaders on 20 October. The European Commission will present reports on the Migration Partnersh...


Buhari's kitchen cabinet

President Muhammadu Buhari stirred a predictable hornets' nest when he dismissed, in a most patriarchal manner, criticisms his wife had made of his presidency. On 14 October Aisha ...


Killing overshadows talks

The murder of Jeremias Pondeca on 8 October is widely seen as an act of desperation by recalcitrant, old-guard members of the governing Frente de Libertação de Moçambique. He was a...


The people's IMF

Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe are in negotiations for hefty International Monetary Fund programmes to shore up their leaky state finances. All eyes are on the conditions that the...


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