A more assertive and united Africa is being promised ahead of the UN Climate Change Conference COP30 from 10-21 November in the Brazilian port city of Belém. ‘We are not here to negotiate our survival. We are here to design the world’s next climate economy,’ declared Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed at the opening of September’s African Climate Summit, which set out the continent’s stall for the COP talks.

That is just as well, since little progress is expected on climate financing from wealthy emitters, whether for adaptation or loss and damage. Global climate adaptation finance fell from US$28 billion to $26bn in 2023, though both figures are tiny compared with the $365bn per year the UN Environment Programme warns developing countries will need by 2035 to cope with climate impacts.

Green debt swaps and other alternative financial mechanisms are likely to feature prominently on the agenda. These have been launched successfully by Caribbean nations in recent years to convert debt into climate and environmental protection. We can also expect African negotiators to press the case for green industrialisation, as international powers compete for access to the continent’s critical minerals and rare earths. With substantial mineral reserves, hydropower dams and geothermal energy, that plays to the strengths of countries such as Congo-Kinshasa, Ethiopia and Kenya.