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Published 5th December 2025

Vol 66 No 24

Nigeria

Deepening security crisis threatens Tinubu’s re-election plans

Nuhu Ribadu meets Pete Hegseth. Pic: @SecWar
Nuhu Ribadu meets Pete Hegseth. Pic: @SecWar

Presidential allies blame political agendas and sabotage within the military for failure to protect citizens

In early November, officers in the Department of State Services received intelligence about a planned abduction at Government Girls’ Comprehensive Secondary School (GGCSS) in Maga, Kebbi State. They swiftly alerted senior Nigerian Army officers to reinforce security.

First the good news – then reality bites

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Pic: @PresidencyZA

A ratings upgrade and stronger fiscal projections boost optimism, but job cuts and slow investment still haunt the ANC

Political sentiment in South Africa is among the most febrile on the continent – if that is any comfort to President Cyril Ramaphosa. After the G20 Leaders’ Summit...

Coup d’état or coup de théâtre?

Pic: @USEmbalo
Pic: @USEmbalo

The military has overthrown the president but his allies remain in place – prompting some regional leaders to suspect skulduggery on all sides

Three of the pillars of President Umaro Sissoco Embaló’s regime threw him out of office on 26 November, just a day before the results of a general election...

BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

As Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame and Congo-Kinshasa’s Félix Tshisekedi prepared their smiles for the cameras at the signing of their peace agreement in the White House on 4 December, it was hard to disguise the bad blood in the air. Congolese diplomats, led by Foreign Minister Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner, say that Rwanda and the M23 have repeatedly flouted the June ceasefire agreement. If that augurs poorly for the new agreement’s durability, so too do th...

As Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame and Congo-Kinshasa’s Félix Tshisekedi prepared their smiles for the cameras at the signing of their peace agreement in the White House on 4 December, it was hard to disguise the bad blood in the air. Congolese diplomats, led by Foreign Minister Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner, say that Rwanda and the M23 have repeatedly flouted the June ceasefire agreement. If that augurs poorly for the new agreement’s durability, so too do the accusations of sabotage from the Forces armées de la République démocratique du Congo, whose spokesperson said its troops had come under attack from the M23. Similar accusations were made against FARDC by M23’s allies, while last week Kagame claimed that Kinshasa was trying to unpick the agreement.

Kenya’s President William Ruto was also in Washington, invited as a ‘guarantor’ of the agreement. That is something of a public relations coup for Ruto, after the East African Community – of which Kenya is part – was forced to withdraw its own peacekeeping force at the behest of Tshisekedi.

Many are questioning the point of the signing ceremony. Some hope that hard economic logic will encourage a rethink. Last week, Qatar confirmed that it would invest US$21 billion in Congo-K, on top of the investment and mining deals promised by business allies close to the Trump administration.

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Hassan Sheikh takes poll position

The President hopes he can remain in power by winning a ‘one person one vote’ election next year, or get his term extended if delays persist

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has strengthened his position in the run-up to the presidential election next year by skilfully dividing the opposition. He is sticking with his call...

Ruto holds the parties together

The president’s party and its allies won most of the seats on ‘Super Thursday’ – yet numbers show a coalition fraying at the edges

President William Ruto and his semi-official allies in the late Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) enjoyed a bumper by-election day on 27 November, winning 16 of the...

Who is guarding the guards?

Activists are trying to push out the chair of the Electoral Commission and the Special Prosecutor as frustration grows with the government’s anti-corruption plan

The better news about the economy hasn’t translated into quieter politics as President John Dramani Mahama’s government and the ruling National Democratic Congress face growing pressure on corruption,...

Hassan faces foreign anger and braces for more unrest

The government risks losing aid funds and billions in investment in reaction to the election violence as it prepares for Independence Day protests

As the scale of bloodshed during the 29 October general election hits home, President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s government has triggered the country’s deepest crisis for decades, threatening the...

Pointers

Auditor challenges president

The Supreme Court in Banjul is expected to hear in one to two weeks’ time the plea of the sacked Auditor-General Modou Ceesay that he was illegally removed...

No more logo

The days of London’s biggest football club, Arsenal, proclaiming ‘Visit Rwanda’ on its players’ sleeves are over after the club confirmed that its eight-year sponsorship deal with Rwanda’s...

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