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South Africa

The ANC pays the price of holding on to power

Pic: @MYANC
Pic: @MYANC

The former ruling party’s municipal retreat may strengthen the brokers it needs to govern and sharpen the contradictions inside Ramaphosa’s national coalition

South Africa’s political order is fragmenting, but the people driving the realignment are not the young activists who have spent years protesting against inequality, unemployment and the failures of the democratic state. They are established political figures fighting over the remnants of the old order.


A hustler’s guide to high places

William Ruto. Pic: @WilliamsRuto
William Ruto. Pic: @WilliamsRuto

William Ruto promised to challenge the Nairobi establishment. His business circle illustrates how readily a new one can form

William Samoei Ruto’s rise to the presidency in August 2022 was framed as a David and Goliath story in which the underdog ‘hustler’ – Ruto – defeated Kenya’s...


Defections test the family running the RSF

SUDAN'S DE FACTO PARTITION: Schisms are weakening the Rapid Support Forces. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
SUDAN'S DE FACTO PARTITION: Schisms are weakening the Rapid Support Forces. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Disputes over patronage, casualties and local power are straining Hemeti’s militia, without depriving it of the capacity to wage war

A succession of defections by senior cadres in the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) run by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo ‘Hemeti’ are changing the dynamics of its war with...


Abiy’s economy is heating up

ETHIOPIA: GROWTH, EXPORTS ROBUST, BUT INFLATION RISING. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
ETHIOPIA: GROWTH, EXPORTS ROBUST, BUT INFLATION RISING. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Positive investment news and far-reaching economic plans are threatened by escalating security risks and renewed fighting

As conflict rages once more in the north of Africa’s second most-populous country, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his Prosperity Party government continue to talk up Ethiopia’s economic...


Beijing and the Gulf tighten their grip

THE RACE FOR AFRICA'S PORTS AND LOGISTICS: China and the UAE lead with the European Union, Saudi Arabia and the US lagging behind. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
THE RACE FOR AFRICA'S PORTS AND LOGISTICS: China and the UAE lead with the European Union, Saudi Arabia and the US lagging behind. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Port and railway deals promise cheaper trade and new investment. They also give foreign operators leverage over the continent’s commercial arteries

The UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) estimates that by 2030, the single market accord could mean a 28% rise in intra-African freight demand. Already, colonial-era ports...


Commonwealth blinks on Tanzania over Lissu and poll violence

Tundu Lissu. Pic: @TunduALissu
Tundu Lissu. Pic: @TunduALissu

Dodoma's deadlines to release Tundu Lissu, enact democratic reforms and account for election violence have expired without any sign of sanctions

Critics have accused the Commonwealth of failing to follow through on its pressure on Tanzania over human rights abuses and growing autocracy. The issue has not come up...


Putin’s energy pitch meets scrutiny over African recruits

Pic: kremlin.ru
Pic: kremlin.ru

Moscow’s summit aimed to deepen its influence through power and security partnerships but failed to allay concerns over Africans fighting for Russian forces in Ukraine

Russia’s limited economic weight is not holding back its growing diplomatic and military weight in Africa as its officials showed by negotiating new security agreements with the African...


Cocoa Board’s funding squeeze exposes serial mismanagement

Pic: Tomas Hajek / stock.adobe.com
Pic: Tomas Hajek / stock.adobe.com

Years of hidden losses and rising arrears have left buyers and farmers struggling as state body raises $1.4 billion on the domestic markets

A liquidity crunch in Ghana’s cocoa sector has forced the Ghana Cocoa Board (Cocobod) and the Ministry of Finance to seek domestic bond financing to fund cocoa purchases...


Moscow courts both sides of the Sahel divide

Meeting with the heads of African regional organisations. Pic: kremlin.ru
Meeting with the heads of African regional organisations. Pic: kremlin.ru

Russia’s proposed security accord with Ecowas would extend its reach beyond the juntas and expose divisions over regional security

Having armed the military regimes that broke with the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas), Moscow is now courting the organisation they left behind. Russia wants to...


Abiy’s gains intensify frontier pressure

ERITEA AND ETHIOPIA: Teetering on the brink of all-our warCopyright © Africa Confidential 2026
ERITEA AND ETHIOPIA: Teetering on the brink of all-our warCopyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Federal advances have sharpened fears of a wider confrontation, as mediators try to separate domestic conflict from cross-border tensions

How far will Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed go in his bid to remake the regional order in the Horn of Africa? When open conflict between the federal...


Tinubu builds the machine

NIGERIA'S STATE GOVERNMENTS (2023-2026): The rise and rise of Tinubu's APC. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
NIGERIA'S STATE GOVERNMENTS (2023-2026): The rise and rise of Tinubu's APC. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

The president’s widening coalition and deep pockets give him an advantage as the opposition tries to turn protests into votes

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu approaches Nigeria’s 16 January presidential election with the strongest political machine, but little popular enthusiasm. Turnout in the elections is likely to be even...


Zuma’s scare clouds the coalition maths

Jacob Zuma
Jacob Zuma

Uncertainty over the 84-year-old’s health adds risk to municipal elections that could reshape governance in the country’s economic heartland

Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK Party) is heading into the 4 November local government elections riding a wave of Zulu nationalism and anger against the African National...


Growth upgrade fails to ease debt squeeze

AFRICA: GDP GROWTH, CURRENCIES RESILIENT, FOR NOW. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
AFRICA: GDP GROWTH, CURRENCIES RESILIENT, FOR NOW. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

The IMF and World Bank lift forecasts, but high US and European yields mean the cost of borrowing will punish African governments

Stronger forecasts and new investment plans at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok on 12–18 October did little to dispel the shadow cast...


Queen Bee Tagwirei takes the hive

Emmerson Mnangagwa swears Kudakwashe Tagwirei in, 12 October 2026. Pic: @edmnangagwa
Emmerson Mnangagwa swears Kudakwashe Tagwirei in, 12 October 2026. Pic: @edmnangagwa

Mnangagwa's favourite financier gets a cabinet seat, a party post and joint-control of the state's investment vehicles in a single week